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Gearing up for the New Hampshire Primary

MANCHESTER, N.H. ÔÇö The GOP presidential race has charged into New Hampshire, following a resounding victory for Donald Trump in Iowa. The state is seen as a key battleground where his opponents and detractors hope to disrupt his path to the nomination.

Donald Trump, following his landslide win in Iowa, plans to campaign in New Hampshire to capitalize on the momentum. This latest victory, where he beat Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by about 30 points, has emboldened his supporters. Vivek Ramaswamy, a first-time candidate who sought to win over Trump supporters, has dropped out of the race. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley, who placed third and was hoping for a surge in New Hampshire, where she has been gaining ground on Trump, is struggling to overtake DeSantis to become the main contender against Trump.

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The New Hampshire primary offers an opportunity for anti-Trump Republicans to halt his momentum, with Haley performing well in recent polls. Her campaign has specifically targeted independent voters, a sizable contingent in New Hampshire which could determine the outcome of the primary. The absence of a real contest within the Democratic Party further underscores the significance of independent voters, who are permitted to participate in either party’s primary.

DeSantis, who has been struggling in some New Hampshire polls, has shifted his focus to South Carolina to highlight Haley’s weakness in her home state and assure donors that he is building a campaign beyond the initial contests. As a result, the primary appears to be evolving into a duel between Trump and Haley.

The New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College in Manchester stipulates that Trump’s support may be wavering due to the composition of the state’s electorate. It includes more highly educated and fewer blue-collar voters compared to other states. However, Trump’s backing has remained consistent throughout last year’s controversies, with Levesque comparing him to a goal post.

Haley’s ground organization in New Hampshire was significantly strengthened when Americans for Prosperity Action endorsed her. This organization has utilized its data to mobilize voters through various forms of outreach. On the other hand, volunteers have largely functioned as the backbone of Trump’s campaign in New Hampshire, contributing to extensive grassroots efforts to rally support for the former president.

The involvement of unaffiliated voters could be pivotal in determining the outcome, with independent voters in New Hampshire representing a diverse and often misunderstood political group. While some may lean Democratic, many align with Trump’s politics, complicating efforts to predict their behavior in the primary. Trump’s campaign officials are confident that a large portion of the undeclared voters will lean in his favor rather than supporting Haley.

The notion of Haley attracting moderate, independent, and disaffected Republican votes has faced challenges, with claims that she is not conservative enough. Navigating such misconceptions will be critical in influencing undecided voters, with the effectiveness of canvassing and influential endorsements playing a crucial role. The ability to present an appealing image to the state’s electorate will be essential for both candidates going forward.

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