- July 9, 2023
- Posted by: legaleseblogger
- Category: Related News
CNBC’s Rick Santelli recently made an appearance on ‘Squawk Box’ to provide a comprehensive breakdown of the June jobs report. This crucial information holds significant importance for businesses and individuals alike, as it sheds light on the current state of the labor market. In order to gain access to live and exclusive video coverage of CNBC’s expert discussions, it is highly recommended to subscribe to CNBC PRO. By subscribing to CNBC PRO, you will be able to stay informed and make well-informed decisions regarding your investments and financial endeavors.
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Rick, I’m not sure what your thoughts are, but we will soon find out whether ADP is performing well or not. The numbers for the nonfarm payrolls in June were not promising, with only 209,000 jobs added. This is the lowest level since 2020 when there was a decrease of 268,000 jobs. Although manufacturing payrolls saw an increase of 7,000 jobs, the unemployment rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.6%, which is still higher than the 3.4% rate in April.
Interestingly, average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, exceeding expectations and matching those of April. In fact, the last time we saw a higher increase was in July of last year. Year over year, average hourly earnings were up by a significant 4.4%. This can be seen as a positive metric against inflation and could be considered the wage component of the economy. Although it was 5% in November of last year, it still remains higher than the previous months of 4.3%, 4.4%, and 4.3%. Thus, we seem to be hovering around this range.
When it comes to hours worked, the average stands at 34.4, which is slightly higher than anticipated and the previous period. The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.6% for the fourth consecutive month. As for the underemployment rate (U6), it currently stands at 6.9%, the highest since August of last year when it reached 7%.
In terms of interest rates, they have been decreasing steadily. Prior to the release of these numbers, the two-year yield was around 5%, but it has now dropped to 4.92%. Similarly, the 10-year yield was around 4.06%, but it has decreased to 4%. We must continue to monitor the equity markets, which experienced a slight spike but quickly returned to their previous levels. There is much to consider in the equity market, and it is important to keep an eye on developments.
In summary, there are a few key points to take away from this situation. The 10-year gilt in the UK has risen, reaching an 8 1/2 month high. Our two-year note yield failed to close above its March high, closing at 5.07%. As a technician, if we do not surpass this level, especially by the end of the week, it may signal a double top pattern, which could be bearish. While this may not be terribly concerning, it is definitely worth paying attention to. Some experts predict that there may be a steepening driven by long-dated treasuries, which could become more complicated when considering the 2s to 10s yield curve.
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