- July 27, 2023
- Posted by: legaleseblogger
- Category: Related News
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Thursday Update:
The coming weekend looks to again rank among the best yet in the post-pandemic era as Barbie and Oppenheimer‘s weekday performances indicate even stronger holds than initially projected this week.
As the tandem continues to catch spillover demand from at- and near-capacity screenings throughout their first week of release, another historic weekend is on deck for the box office as a whole.
Behind last weekendÔÇÖs $311.3 million market haul, the top overall moviegoing weekends since 2019 are:
- December 17 ÔÇô 19, 2022 ($283 million)
- July 8 ÔÇô 10, 2022 ($238.4 million)
- May 6 ÔÇô 8, 2022 ($222.3 million)
- June 10 ÔÇô 12, 2022 ($214.9 million)
- November 11 ÔÇô 13, 2022 ($209.5 million)
- June 2 ÔÇô 4, 2023 ($205.2 million)
- April 7 ÔÇô 9, 2023 ($205.1 million)
Remarkably, all of those frames were primarily driven by the opening weekend performance of tentpole films. That will not be the case this time.
The most comparable period to the weekend ahead will be May 3 ÔÇô 5, 2019. That was Avengers: Endgame‘s second weekend of release, and the market grossed an overall $199.9 million. Endgame accounted for $147.4 million of that revenue as a holdover with the best-ever second weekend gross in history.
While itÔÇÖs important to view each film individually on many levels, Barbie and Oppenheimer are on pace to approach that figure between them in their second weekend showings. Combined with the debut of Haunted Mansion and healthy holds from other films in their chase weekends, the market overall should crack $200 million again with a considerable shot to land among the top five post-pandemic box office weekends.
In response to this incredibly unique run by both films, final forecasts and target ranges below have been revised ahead of the weekendÔÇÖs official start.
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Barbie
2nd Weekend Range: $80M-$95M
Oppenheimer
2nd Weekend Range: $45M-$55M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4yEPXrYFNY[/embed>
Haunted Mansion
Walt Disney Pictures
July 28, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $22M-$36M
PROS:
- Widespread familiarity with the source material will be an advantage in DisneyÔÇÖs attempt to bring another one of their signature theme park rides to the big screen, for the second time in Mansion‘s case.
- Timing is favorable given the lack of family-driven options at the box office right now.
- A strong ensemble cast adds appeal for parents and adults, in addition to the family audiences being targeted.
- Pre-sales are encouraging, with a pace comparable to PixarÔÇÖs Elemental last month and DisneyÔÇÖs Jungle Cruise back in July 2021.
CONS:
- With a late review embargo lift, critics are divided on the film. The Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 49 percent from 70 reviews as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Opening a film thatÔÇÖs thematically more fit for the Halloween period in the late summer is a somewhat questionable decision.
- Staying power could be impacted by the arrival of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem in theaters next week.
Current projection ranges call for a 30% to 40% decrease from last weekendÔÇÖs $307.8 million top ten aggregate.
Please note that previous forecast ranges for Barbie ($75 million to $90 million with a pinpoint of $79.1 million) and Oppenheimer ($42 million to $57 million with a pinpoint of $44.6 million) have been updated in this report.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 30 | legal-document-to-plain-english-translator/”>Try Free Now: Legalese tool without registration
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