- May 9, 2024
- Posted by: legaleseblogger
- Category: Related News
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## Contradictory Economic Forecasts by Diana Mousina
Diana Mousina, a highly respected economist from AMP, made conflicting statements about the likelihood of interest rate cuts in recent days.
### Initial Forecast: Rate Cuts Expected in June
In a podcast just one day ago, Mousina confidently stated, “Our official view is that the RBA will start cutting interest rates in June.”
### Subsequent Update: Rate Cut Unlikely in Near Future
However, in an ABC episode also from 1 day ago, Mousina contradicted her previous prediction by stating, “That risk of a near-term rate cut has absolutely disappeared.”
## Unpredictability of Economic Predictions
Despite Mousina’s expertise and reputation, her differing statements highlight the unpredictable nature of economic forecasting.
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****** just grabbed a
I had this idea a few years ago that house prices couldn’t keep going up because incomes weren’t rising and there was a limit to what people could spend. But apparently I was completely wrong.
Economists are expert at explaining why what they predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.
“Our official view” seems like qualifying language to indicate that her individual view might be different.
I regularly see in this sub people overlooking qualifying language and nuance and building straw men to take down.
The future is a mystery, the past is history, now is a gift.
If they knew for sure they wouldn’t need to work as economists…
I think it’s the rest us that are the fools for expecting their predictions to be correct. They’re just that, predictions.
Doctors can and do predict that certain behaviours are more likely to lead to certain health outcomes but they aren’t always correct in that some people resist the trend somehow.
Economies are similar but since we have less of them and the impacts of getting it wrong affect millions we instead confidently say economists are idiots when what should happen doesn’t. On the other hand no one calls the doctor an idiot because uncle Kev somehow avoided getting lung cancer from his 2 pack a day habit
It seems to me the market can’t begin to cool until excess money has been bled off. So long as the wealthiest have their war chests and the incentives, they’ll continue to drive the market. Why stop at 5 properties when you can own 10.
The middle and poor will decimated in the process.
Prices will drop when it’s decided enough is enough. This is some years away and it is the worst time to be 20-40 years old while the world is figurinig out its order – this started a while back and will continue, so the number of people who are in the 20-40 age bracket during this period of change will be in the hundreds of millions globally. This will create a massive decline in young people and society within this century. Immigration from the third world is the last resort, but this will further accelerate the decline in living standards and reduced levels of education – literacy is already in terminal decline and hand writing could very well be a thing of the past in the near future. Global warming, raising water levels and diseases will have a lot to say this century.
Any corrective measures will be last minute and drastic. The future is bleak and holding on to what you have and building wealth to ensure a future for your progeny (especially with their quality) is futile at best.
The more professional and ‘respected’ they are – the more idiotic they can be. We all know inflation has not dropped far enough and the AUD in the toilet is possibly going to exacerbate that. Whether or not the RBA does something cannot be rationally determined as they are humans, not an algorithm.
Economists are the weathermen of the finance world
I don’t know why anyone predicted interest rate changes this year.
After the drama of raising them, no one is going to want to cut them prematurely. Ideally, we all get used to these rates and stop talking about them. But while there’s so much focus on them, the only responsible thing to do is hold.
Tough to say anything negative towards Housing instant downvote 😅
Anyone who takes individual economist predictions as anything other than predictions is asking for trouble.
For starters, they’re a snapshot in time based on the data available, and the data changes daily. They don’t have access to some magic source of information that the rest of us don’t, the data is largely available to anyone who wants to go looking for it.
More useful to aggregate the economists predictions, discard the outliers and look at the range of the rest of the predictions, and even then it’s probably only 50:50 accurate on a given day.
Yes there have been crazy swings in interest rates due to covid and post covid. But with the way the economy is, rates won’t come down straight away. Media and governments have been talking up that they will which be cut to try and improve economic sentiment
Simple economics states if an economy remains overheated rates rises may occur.
No one knows the future, but it’s in the systems best interest to keep pushing the narrative that rates are going down, or speculation that rates go down on x date. It’s up to you as an individual to do the necessary research YOURSELF to decide what the movement of rates will be.
Diana should have asked on AusFinance, many here seem to know what the future holds.
The Question I really have is, how sure are we that in today’s economic climate, that pushing interest rates higher and higher is the best method to lower inflation. Undoubtedly it lowers it, but the question is by how much?
Thought experiment, if it took another 3% of interest rate rises to lower the inflation back under 3%, would it be worth it?
Economics is an art and not a science. General theory relies on assumptions. One of the biggest assumptions is that people will act rationally.
Probably why economists couldn’t predict the increase in demand and the price of toilet paper.
Interest rates are even more complicated. Interest rates are determined by local and overseas factors. Discussion on what the USA is going to do with Interest rates has huge influence on Australian Interest rates. Then we have to take exchange rates into the equation. How long do we want the exchange rate in the 60s cent per USD? How do we handle the inflation from low exchange rate?
The future:
* Within 5 years AI reaches AGI levels (average person intelligence)
* As we approach the mark, jobs start disappearing at an accelerating rate
* People who lose their jobs find themselves excluded from a job market that now requires less humans
* Retail business collapses as customers can’t afford to purchase products
* Housing market collapses as people become ineligible for mortgages
* Protests & civil unrest
* Government protectionism & interventions fail
* Economic model fails
Brace yourselves.
“Forecasts” of things is something that people at consulting firms and finance companies do – the firm has to have a view and often they like to tout it in public. But they’re not really forecasts, which come as ranges not point estimates with caveats.
And making an interest rate prediction is not really a forecast anyway – it’s guessing what the Reserve Bank Board thinks the macroeconomic climate will look like in the medium term and how well it fits with current nominal interest rates.
What was the podcast?
When COVID hit lock agent said same …. Sell sell
!!!! Prices are going to tank .. go backwards …. In fact in 4 years it’s gone up 70% in my area.
I don’t know why they increased interest rates but nothing has changed since they have right? so why would they drop them again to a historically ridiculously low level. then again why did they drop them so low for so long in the first place….
One of my favourite bon mots from the Economics Explained guy is “Nobody can predict the future, least of all Economists”.
I appreciate their contribution to society, but I share the same sentiment, usually with the word “horseshit” in there somewhere for giggles.
Because the actual problem is wage growth, and they don’t wanna talk about it. So they just say random shit and talk about inflation. Hoping no one notices and it worked.
Why does she frame a near term rate cut as a “risk”.
Risk to the insane profits being had by the banks no doubt…
……my opinion is kind of set in stone so I won’t be a good debate but here is my critical discussion of substance. (Also I’m not exactly a pro trader please allow for some mistakes)
I am not sure how long experts have known. But I’ve known that RBA cuts wouldn’t get cut for 2-3 days.
Context. I trade the aud/usd currency pair.
Some of the information used for the fundamental analysis of that is the exact same info that the RBA uses to determine if rates get cut or not.
In this specific instance we are keeping rates high on purpose to further allow our currency to gain ground against usd, Gbp, eur, and jpy mainly usd.
The tldr context: macroeconomics are currently supporting the AUD
BUT this current dynamic may be temporary and that’ll be the case if the US federal representatives maintain a hawkish perspective longer than expected because our consumer spending growth was higher than expected.
All that’s fair to be assumed right now is that the RBA will start easing monetary policy before the US federal reserve which is contradicting expert opinions and is a factor that’s supporting the AUD long term. And that’s why the RBA won’t cut rates right now. It’s healthy for us not to. And if the property owners must suffer then so be it.
Well my AMP shares weren’t worth wiping my arse with so I wouldn’t be listening to him.
Cutting rates in June was an asinine take all year, so for someone to say that last week or yesterday is hilariously foolish. The markets were never anywhere close to the that. The Fed? Yeah there was lots of optimism that has been shut down, but the RBA no one literate in finance thought that was a possibility.
The RBA will move much slower than other central banks in cutting rates.
Her prediction would have been correct if the government didn’t alter the market by giving people 60grand to build new homes
I love looking at older articles, recommendations, analysis, posts etc about stocks, interest rates, economics and other stuff. it really highlights how nobody knew anything (and still don’t)- even the experts.
I know Diana. Yes, she’s smart, from a smart family. She’s next in line to be chief economist there or something, I think?
I don’t worry about things I can’t control. Talk is always noise there is always risk take it or don’t.
Just look at what is happened to the market.
That in itself tells you the economists are lying.
They are ‘forecasting’ a different story for the public, then what they are doing privately, or you’d see huge swings on the exchange
What was the data that made Diana change her mind? You are allowed to change your position if the data changes.
I saw Philip Lowe present last year after he left the RBA Governor role. The key thing he said in his speech that has stuck with me is “I spent 5 years at the RBA doing everything we could to increase inflation by keeping interest rates low, as inflation was too low – and we failed. Now the RBA will spend the next few years trying to reduce inflation, again, through keeping interest rates high… good luck with them on that.”
Over the past 12 months, this has largely proven to be the case.
Conclusion: inflation is sticky. It’s going to stay higher for longer, and interest rates aren’t the best tool to do it either, but it’s the main tool the RBA has at its disposal. Therefore expect interest rates to stay higher for longer as well.
Like with some positions, some are just made up for the sake of it. Economists being one.
It’s about time Australia revisit what happened in the Great Depression.
You had economists claiming just before market collapsed. The best thing you could do is take out a loan and invest in the stock market.
Sounds fimilar?
Not saying housing market won’t crash.
It just can’t continue to outstrip wages and have infinite growth.
Yes many people have picked this up so now I’ve noticed recently everyone in Ausfinance is a part time economist whose uneducated 2c is now worth the same as a highly respected economist
Google news from business insider popped up… S&P500 crash is coming. Expect 44% devalue soon SELL SELL SELL! 😆