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Analysis of The Shyft Group, Inc.’s Strong Performance

The Shyft Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SHYF) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 7.4% better than analyst forecasts at US$198m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.14 per share, were 7.4% smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Shyft Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Shyft Group from four analysts is for revenues of US$862.1m in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 5,702% to US$0.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$864.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.19 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$13.00, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company’s valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shyft Group at US$15.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$12.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Shyft Group’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Shyft Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Shyft Group’s earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$13.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Shyft Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it’s still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 2 warning signs with Shyft Group , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.