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Less pollution settling into snow should help cut the decline of snowpack in the Northern Hemisphere later this century

In a positive development for the future of snowpack in the Northern Hemisphere, researchers have found that less pollution settling into snow could help mitigate the decline of snowpack caused by rising temperatures. While the snowpack will still diminish, the outlook is less dire when considering the cleaner snow of the future. This finding is promising for the millions of people who rely on snowmelt in high mountains for water and food production, as well as for winter recreational activities.

The study was conducted by scientists at the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, who analyzed various factors that impact snowpack, including warming temperatures, pollution, dust, and the shape of snow grains. Published in Nature Communications, the research provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between the environment and snowpack.

Clean snow vs. dirty snow

The research underscores the importance of understanding the differences between clean snow and dirty snow. Dalei Hao, the first and corresponding author of the study, explains that these types of snow respond differently to sunlight. Additionally, the shape of snow grains plays a crucial role in shaping the snowpack. These factors should be taken into account when studying the future of snowpack.

It is estimated that around 2 billion people rely on spring and summer snowmelt in mountainous regions for essential resources like freshwater and food production. If the snow melts faster or earlier than usual, it can lead to a variety of issues such as flooding and water scarcity. The condition of the snowpack in mountains has a direct impact on the quality of life for millions of people, particularly in regions like the Himalayas.

Among the factors influencing future snowpack, the study identifies temperature and the presence of dark particles, such as pollution and dust, as the most significant. These dark particles absorb more sunlight, causing the snow to warm up faster and melt quicker compared to clean snow.

Anthropogenic activities, such as vehicle emissions and wood burning, contribute to the presence of these dark particles. However, the study suggests that cleaner snow can be expected in the future due to reduced pollution and less wood burning, thereby mitigating the accelerating snow melt.

Warmer air vs. cleaner snow

While cleaner snow holds promise for mitigating snowpack decline, it will coincide with warmer temperatures. This presents a challenge, as warmer temperatures lead to less precipitation falling as snow and more as rain. Additionally, the increasing warmth directly contributes to snow melt. Thus, the benefits of cleaner snow may not be sufficient to counterbalance the overall impact of warming temperatures on snowpack reduction.

Potentially, if carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise significantly, the study estimates a snowpack loss of around 58 percent. However, with cleaner snow reducing this loss by 8 percent, the decline could be slightly moderated. If carbon dioxide emissions are substantially reduced, the snowpack loss could be significantly mitigated, with cleaner snow minimizing the decline by over half.

The diversity of snow grain shapes and other factors

The study also highlights the impact of snow grain shapes on snow melt. Unlike models that assume uniformly spherical snow grains, the researchers found that the varied shapes of real snow grains result in slower snow melt. Real snowflakes with their irregular shapes reflect more sunlight and melt less snow compared to spherical flakes. This finding challenges previous assumptions and contributes to the understanding of snowpack dynamics.

Other factors, such as wildfires and changes in soil composition, also influence snowpack. Warmer temperatures lead to more wildfires, which produce additional dark particles. However, the timing of wildfire activity and snowfall in mountains limits the potential impact on late spring snowmelt. The loss of biological soil crust, influenced by temperature increase and land development, also contributes to increased dust settling on snow.

Ultimately, the study emphasizes the importance of considering both temperature and the presence of dark particles when projecting future changes in snowpack. Determining which factor has the most significant influence is key to understanding the fate of snowpack in the coming decades.

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The AI legalese decoder can assist in analyzing the legal and technical implications of the research findings on snowpack decline. By accurately decoding complex legal and scientific terminology, the AI legalese decoder can aid in understanding the policy implications and regulatory measures that can be taken to mitigate the impact of snowpack reduction. This tool can assist stakeholders in making informed decisions related to land and resource management, water conservation, and climate change policies.

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