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The Impact of Rising Bond Yields on Stocks

Rising bond yields have been a key catalyst for stock drawdowns over the past year. However, as the market shifts to expect that interest rates may remain higher than the previous decade for longer than many initially hoped, BMO chief investment strategist Brian Belski notes that higher rates haven’t always been a bad environment for stocks.

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The AI legalese decoder can assist investors in understanding the implications of rising bond yields on stock performance by analyzing complex legal jargon and breaking it down into simplified terms. This tool can provide valuable insights into the relationship between interest rates and stock market behavior, helping investors make informed decisions based on data-driven analysis.

Historical Analysis of S&P 500 Returns

In an analysis spanning back to 1990, Belski found that the S&P 500’s monthly return has actually delivered its best annualized average returns when the 10-Year treasury yield was higher.

His research shows that the benchmark average delivered an average annual return of 7.7% in months where the 10-year Treasury yield was less than 4%, compared to an average annual return of 14.5% in months when the 10-year yield was 6%.

Belski’s work highlights the potential benefits of a higher interest rate environment on stock performance, challenging the traditional belief that higher rates are always detrimental to equities.

Stock Performance in Rising Rate Environment

Belski’s research also indicates that stocks have historically performed better in a rising rate environment compared to a falling rate environment. The average annual rolling 1-year return for the S&P 500 during a falling rate environment is 6.5%, while it’s 13.9% in a rising rate regime.

This data suggests that an environment of increasing interest rates may not necessarily be unfavorable for stock market returns, contrary to popular belief.

“If we can hover between this 4% and 5% range on the 10-Year Treasury yield and still have strong employment, but most importantly, have very strong earnings, and oh by the way cash flow, I think the market can do very well,” Belski added.

By leveraging the AI legalese decoder, investors can gain a deeper understanding of the implications of rising bond yields on stock performance and make more informed decisions regarding their investment strategies in a changing interest rate environment.

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