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## The Prediction of Interest Rate Cuts and the Impact on Housing Prices

The current prediction in the financial market is that interest rates will be cut later this year. This move is expected to have far-reaching implications on various aspects of the economy. One of the concerns raised by many is the potential impact on housing prices. While inflation is influenced by a variety of factors, including house prices, the thought of cutting rates and potentially triggering a surge in house prices seems counterintuitive. Wouldn’t this only exacerbate inflationary pressures?

With the housing sector accounting for approximately 22% of the CPI basket used to measure inflation, any significant changes in house prices can have a substantial impact on the overall inflation rate. The housing measure in the CPI calculation includes the cost of newly constructed dwellings, major renovations by owner-occupiers, and rental payments, all of which play a crucial role in determining the inflation rate.

In such a scenario, the role of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) becomes crucial. While the RBA does not explicitly target house prices, any significant increase in housing prices could potentially lead to inflationary pressures. As observed recently in the property market, there has been a notable uptick in demand for properties, which is typically associated with economic growth and inflation.

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Original Content:

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Rewritten Content:

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38 Comments

  • belugatime

    Because house prices aren’t in the RBA’s mandate.

    https://www.rba.gov.au/about-rba/our-role.html

    When they were raising rates because the situation warranted they did it in spite of the risk to house prices.

  • Lammiroo

    Because it’s not just about house price inflation. It’s about total inflation.

  • Wow_youre_tall

    House prices have nothing to do with the RBA setting interest rates

    It’s about unemployment, inflation and economic activity.

    Whilst unemployment is low, inflation is >3% they won’t cut rates.

  • SoggyNegotiation7412

    to be honest, RBA interest rates are not even that high @ 4.35%, the core issue is the RBA should have never let them go so low. What they did was basically become a crack dealer and get everyone hooked on interest rates below 5%. Throw in too many investors leveraging investment properties and you have a recipe for disaster. My parents purchased a home in 2008 with a 10% home loan and they thought it was a good rate. The other problem is when you have interest rates below 5% it becomes self-defeating as it devalues the AUD, so short term your home repayments are good, long term is everything else becomes more expensive. Australia has been lucky in many ways as China has kept inflation on the consumer side down, the issue now is the wheels have fallen off that wagon and prices are going to go up.

  • Thelandofthereal

    It’s just a narrative and they won’t cut rates

  • link871

    “Purchases of established dwellings are not captured in the CPI” – only rent and cost of new dwellings are included in CPI

  • hear_the_thunder

    Because there is a lot of delusion on the forum because of bag holders. Bag holders are telling themselves that the current rates are historic highs.

    Many are holding on with the hope of lowering, but have had their lifestyle severely cut.

    Rates were lowered worldwide because of the GFC but people thinking the post economic collapse stimulatory rates are a perennial entitlement.

    Welcome to Economics.

  • fantasypaladin

    This sub makes me realise that most Australians that comment on things actually have no idea about how things work.

  • RandoCal87

    Inflation does not consider the price of existing homes.

  • 88xeeetard

    Who says they are going to?  At this stage it’s feb next year and if anything I’d bet that gets pushed back.

  • pimpmister69

    They won’t cut

  • dingleberry-38

    They were never going to cut this year. It’s a feel good thing. Just like “no rate rises until 2024”.

  • Visual_Revolution733

    The RBA regulates CofA’s debt. The banks use this to raise their interest rates.
    It’s important to note Aust debt doubled during the pandemic and this has to be paid back. If interest rates keep raising we will be hit with austerity.
    Check silver and gold prices, combined with what’s happening with Israel, we are now in a crash.
    Good luck everyone.

  • Verulkungpj

    Chill, it’s just a story they’re spinning, no way they’re gonna cut rates.

  • petergaskin814

    American situation suggests there will be no interest rate cuts this year

  • sparkling_toad

    They won’t cut this year. That was just hopium talk. US inflation is going up.

    Might even see another raise.

  • TrickyClassic2731

    To the man with a hammer, everything is a nail.

  • paulsonfanboy134

    They aren’t cutting this year. Don’t let those who are levered to their eyeballs in mortgage debt try and convince you otherwise

  • Far_Radish_817

    They won’t, but the general line used by proponents of interest rate cuts is that they boost the economy. Never mind that, with 3.7% unemployment, our economy is already easy enough as it is.

  • xiaodaireddit

    Because house prices is not parry of the inflation calculation

  • Opening-Ad2995

    Why do you think house prices have anything to do with the RBA’s considerations? Their mandate is to keep inflation in the 2-3% range, not play with housing prices…

  • ShittyManifesto

    Inflation is a lagging indicator, and changes to the cash rate are slow to take effect. 

  • OilCorrect6928

    At this point they are basically lying to placate people. Then when it all hits the fan they’ll use words like unprecedented and blame some event like a war or something. 

  • Passtheshavingcream

    There is absolutely nothing the RBA can do to control house prices. There is simply too much cash out there now and in the future that can be allocated to property. This will only go up with the level of financial education of the masses in Australia.

    It will be a very long and drawn out war of attrition here. Opportunities will be available only to the wealthy or those that give up their mental health for the right to a 30 year mortgage for an overpriced tent on a block of land in a soulless and isolated suburb.

    One can reasonably expect society to decline rapidly and health outcomes to deteriorate especially among people in the 20-30 age group followed by the 30-40 age group. This decline is not a first in history and it will be extremely pronouned in nanny state Australia due to the soulless and spiritless population that can take a lot with zero risk to the system managers.

    Property prices will continue to go up along with breaking down of families and mental illness spreading througout the population due to hopelessness, despair and isolation.

    Only a complete reset can restore some semblance of hope and a future. The 20-30 year olds need a lot of support NOW.

  • bruzinho12

    Poor people get mortgages, rich people buy houses with cash

  • Split-Awkward

    House prices aren’t the only inflation measure. The fact people think they are helps me understand why so many people are bad with finances.

    Go and read up on how inflation is actually measured. Please. Once off investment of your time and you can’t unlearn it.

    Unemployment is a figure you really want to keep an eye on.

    Especially the shift from full-time to part-time roles.

    Job advertisements and ratio of applications to each job.

  • Dogmuff1n

    Because they look for unemployment and inflation.

    Also, house prices are high because debt is high (because salaries are not inline with prices)

    Unemployment likely means that people can’t service their debt, and we will see a retraction in prices.

    When unemployment hits, it won’t instantly be fixed by low rates

  • grungysquash

    The RBA looks at overall inflation, not just one element.

    Interest rates will only change either up or down if underlining inflation changes.

    The fact that people can borrow more money at lower interest rates is obvious, but that’s not the RBAs concern.

  • I-make-ada-spaghetti

    The banks charter is to ensure the monetary policy of the bank is:

    a. the stability of the currency of Australia;

    b. the maintenance of full employment in Australia; and

    c. the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

    If they keep interest rates high (optimizing for a.) then it is a detriment to b. and c.

    It’s a balancing act.

    To be honest though they always optimize for b. and the people in c. who are responsible for b. because a. and c. can’t exist without b.

  • PowerBottomBear92

    Good interview with head of RBNZ, similiar would be for australia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnNqKfE1OUA

  • Monkeyshae2255

    Are you unaware of the massive tensions in the Middle East currently? Cutting rates – come on!

  • Ok_Magician8055

    It’s one of the economic reasons cuts will be delayed imo

  • latending

    Rents are part of the CPI numbers, not asset prices.

    Inflation is also a measurement of the change in the rate of prices, not in the prices themselves. So if the price of something increases by 50% one year, but then 1% the next, the RBA will consider that particular inflation to be “very low”, despite a 51% increase over a two year period, as CPI is an annualised measurement.

  • Wooden-Trouble1724

    If they keep the immigrants coming in, Aussie economy is gravy. It’s pretty easy to make big money here if you work hard

  • TheRealCool

    They wouldn’t

  • Gman777

    Rates aren’t just about house prices.

  • DrSendy

    >Housing makes up around 22% of the CPI basket that is used to calculate inflation over time (in fact housing has the largest weighting of all components within the CPI calculation).

    There’s a tonne of smart people here, can someone explain how the RBA handles the obvious feedback look Interest rates and increased repayments make on the CPI?

    Is there are forward forecast, or threshold they used to inidcate the right time to back off? Similarly, how to they a leading indicator of when it is about to bite hard?

  • ElmoIsOver

    Easy tiger!