- May 5, 2024
- Posted by: legaleseblogger
- Category: Related News
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****** just grabbed a
If we get even one out of those three rate hikes, people will lose their mind. We will see very shortly how serious the RBA was about their inflation timeline.
Boomers: cackling at their savings accounts
Gen X: died homeless years ago
Milennials: *chuckles* I’m in danger
Gen Z: unphased, they were never getting out of rental hell in the first place.
**Paywall-free link:**
[https://12ft.io/https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-to-lift-cash-rate-to-5-1pc-says-top-forecaster-20240425-p5fmhg](https://12ft.io/https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-to-lift-cash-rate-to-5-1pc-says-top-forecaster-20240425-p5fmhg)
If they really wanted to fight inflation, they would pull back on the excessive immigration numbers.
The problem with calls like these is that there are so many of them over the course of a month that gauging where the economy is truly at VS an unexpectedly hot data set, is next to impossible.
[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/calendar) Australian releases calendar shows just how many releases there are day-to-day that impact economists predictions and future decisions. Elements of data can be manipulated for headlines and given there is at least 1 major release per week which sways market expectations, we see a lot of that.
Warren Hogan however, is one of the best when it comes to forecasting so taking his input on board is a worthy exercise.
Edit: to expand further on the above, leave it none other than The Kouk himself
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-koukoulas-39177142_one-misnomer-in-most-data-analysis-including-activity-7189397520215691264-MF0W?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
In July 2022 he predicted the cash rate would be 2.5 in June 2023. It was 4.1. https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/07/01/economy-panel-predictions-year-ahead
So yeah. It means his guess is and was as good as mine or yours or someone who isn’t even guessing.
I wonder if we could just pull back the immigration a bit to slow the economy a bit…
“Top Forecaster”
Whenever I hear “top” used as an adjective to describe a person, my Australian humour detector kicks in.
Don’t forget kids: The goverment printing billions during Rona and then importing half a million net migrants annually did this to you.
And also factoring the Stage 3 tax cuts will add to inflation, but will be a slightly longer lead and we won’t see effects until late calendar year
TBF these economist predictions are more a publicity piece – a few will be contrarian and then shoot above the fold in the papers for a day or two with some take.
I do think it’s a distinct possibility. If you breakdown the CPI print from this week, deflation seems to come from supply chains and operational matters like airlines having planes again. It’s pretty obvious the overshooting categories are domestic services and rents etc – supercharged by immigration.
RBA mustn’t be too impressed with the government, they are making the boards job impossible (leaving aside how late they were to raise yada yada yada).
A hike or two, especially as we are now in the back half of Labours federal term, wouldn’t impress a few politicians. But it’s probably the kick they need.
Fuel and even groceries seem to be on the rise rapidly again. Add in cost of housing increases going bananas. I feel it’s pretty likely that there will be a rate hike soon. Dramatically cutting immigration will help ease most of those things and will be deflationary. We will probably go.into recession doing so but we may need to do it to unbundle some of this mess. Major reform is needed in nearly all economic sectors to ultimately fix things and I don’t think any politicians have the will (or the will to go against lobbyists) to do so.
It’s what’s needed, that and taking the foot off the immigration pedal.
People don’t want to hear it & it will cause pain but runaway housing has not been addressed for decades.
Hiking interest rates whilst the wealthy keep spending is demented.
I’m just going to drop this here so I can refer back to it in a few years
There aren’t going to be major rate cuts.
There’s either going to be 1 or 2 minor cuts followed by long periods of holding and then “back to square one” raises.
or
There will be sparse minor raises for YEARS.
This is because inflation is being caused by systematic problems and the CPI has been sculpted to hide systematic problems and there is ZERO political will to fix the systematic problems (immigration, frivolous social spending, bullshit jobs)
I cannot believe that the only lever Australia has against inflation is interest rates. It is such a blunt instrument and only hits mortgage holders when the big spenders in the economy do not even have one. There are a range of other things that could be done, but politicians are gutless and afraid of losing power and have therefore left it up to the RBA because then they cannot be blamed for it. I wish more voters would see through the smoke and mirrors.
Economists say the tax cuts from July is the same as two interest rate cuts. So bumping rates up twice would just be neutralising the tax cut inflationary impact.
Any policy giving more cash in people’s pocket is inflationary as it increases demand on goods and services if you don’t increase supply
I think it’s important to note that Warren Hogan is not some rogue economist who got lucky with his forecasts last year. I’ve been following his comments all through this tightening cycle because he’s always got something interesting to say.
However, even I wondered if he’s gone crazy with this prediction. It’s completely insane, and I don’t know what to make of it. I simply can’t imagine three more rate rises
Who else cried when they read this?
I’ve decided that this is purely click bait. I refuse to accept this reality.
Until they (RBA) cater these policies to the large pool of retirees who are all spending way above what the common working person is, inflation will keep going up.
bust out those tents people
The kicker is that Australia wide, 30% of properties are bought for cash.
Also, only a third of Australians have a mortgage.
Additionally, there has been some research that it’s cashed up older Australians (the ones buying up properties without a mortgage) who are driving inflation. People with mortgages and renters are already at the absolute limit. So the rate increases are a blunt instrument with progressively lower effectiveness as the gap between the haves and have nots is widening. It’s by design, the landed gentry class has effectively been created, with the peasants maintaining their property portfolios cashflow with their salaries which haven’t grown since 2009.
Considering the price at the supermarket checkout, I don’t need an economist degree to tell you that inflation is rampant. I think a hike is likely.
The higher the rates go the more risk-free Monopoly money I get.
Either way, prices will go up regardless of rates. It will be a very long drawn out decline in Australia. Prices will collapse only after something hits the fan in a very conspicuous way.
More gaslighting to stimulate the realestate market??
Warren Hogan is hardly a “top forecaster”.
Current market pricing is for 12 basis points of hikes by year end. This is roughly equivalent to there being a 50% probability of a hike.
Certainly the most recent quarterly CPI was strong enough to make cuts much less likely, however calling for three hikes is a big claim!
Wonder if they’ll do a 0.5 just to rip the band aid off
Increasing interest rates will just make landlords increase rent, which will increase inflation anyway.
Yep time to crank the rates to snuff out inflation. Need to get on top of this now
I am no economist, but it seems there are two options.
1. Interest rate rise, increased unemployment, and business failures reduce demand. Reduced inflation.
2. Interest rate remains the same or falls, job market resilient. Increasing or not decreasing inflation.
They prefer option 1. I, layman, prefer option 2. Having a job is not just an economic issue, it is a social and mental health issue. How flippant is it praying for job loss.
Rates higher for longer now. Anyone wishing for cuts is in trouble.
“Total expenditure from the Commonwealth and the states and territories on the NDIS is estimated at $36.7 billion in 2022–23 and is expected to be $41.9 billion in 2023–24, a growth rate of 14.4%.” —- yeah. This is fine
I have years of experience tracking pocket money for my kids, and based on my analysis there is a 103.62% likelihood that interests rates are going to go up and/or down over the next 12 months. We’re definitely going to see inflation move in a direction, and the cost of living will be different to what it is now. I also ran the latest rental figures through AI for pattern analysis and the results are pretty conclusive. Rental costs are going to continue being an expense for renters until at least 2028.
Around 5% is around the historical average so make sense
A lot of the inflation is manufactured though, meaning it’s not real, it;s just companies putting prices up because they can. The supermarket cartel of Wooly’s and Cole’s comes to mind here, they just put prices up because they can. Look at their earnings from the last few years, it’s in the billion’s “net”. I can understand with a lot of chip manufacturers as to why and that was due to sales forecasting by car makers. Same thing happened to mountain bike manufacturers, they forecasted less sales during covid and the parts manufacturers stopped making the parts think fox shocks for example. Then when sales unexpectedly increased due to everyone wanting to go riding supply and demand kicked in pushes prices up. So that side of things I get. But charging $7 for smiths chips when the bag is filled with 40% air is 100% manufactured, it doesn’t add up when you look at the net profits. I could get a full trolly of groceries 3 years ago for $150 now that same trolly work is $400+.
Most of it I believe is made up inflation by profiteers just because they can.
RBA to lift cash rate to 7.1pc, says Redditor with Seinfeld based username.
Probably don’t need to go 3 times but do need a shock and awe . 25 at the next meeting.
Government needs to slow the flow on immigration otherwise this will just keep happening until it all goes to shit
Forecaster forecasts:
Correct forecasts – I’m the best forecaster, I’ve seen this from miles away. Bow to me peasants. Read my article and my book and let’s make money together
Incorrect forecasts – market is unpredictable and hard to determine due to multiple variables and global economy.
I don’t see it.
Many inflationary pressures are now essential items, housing, insurance and energy.
Retail spending, used cars, hospitality all down. We are no longer seeing demand driven inflation.
My guess is we see another pause with a potential hike next quarter.
[deleted]
RBA can go get 🤬
Rate rise don’t impact cash buyers.
Australia needs the long overdue, much anticipated, housing crash.
I would have put money on the “top forecaster” being Christopher Joye before I clicked on the link.
Where are all the people who cheered on destroying the economy over a virus?
Interest rates ain’t going anywhere. Not up nor down.