Bitcoin Price: The Path Back to $100,000 May Be Closer Than Anticipated

There’s growing speculation that Bitcoin (BTC) may rapidly approach the coveted $100,000 mark sooner than many investors had anticipated. This potential surge is fueled by the early indicators suggesting a decoupling from the traditional US stock market and gold price movements.

Emerging Trends: The Shift in Bitcoin’s Relationship with Gold

Bitcoin has recently demonstrated resilience, largely dismissing market anxiety triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff allegations on April 2. While BTC initially experienced a dip—falling over 3% to approximately $82,500—it quickly regained ground, surging back by around 4.5% to exceed $84,700. In stark contrast, the S&P 500 index suffered a steep decline of 10.65% this same week, and gold—which reached a remarkable high of $3,167 on April 3—subsequently dipped by about 4.8%.

This initial divergence from traditional asset movements is invigorating the narrative that “gold leads, Bitcoin follows.” Observers are drawing from past price trends, particularly those from late 2018 through mid-2019, to foresee a vigorous price recovery that could propel BTC toward the $100,000 threshold.

During the earlier period mentioned, gold experienced a steady increase of nearly 15% by mid-2019 while Bitcoin remained stagnant. Shortly thereafter, Bitcoin’s price surged over 170% in early 2019 and skyrocketed another 344% by late 2020.

Market analyst MacroScope commented on this potential turnaround, stating, “A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” and added,

“As observed in previous cycles, this would herald a new phase of significant outperformance by BTC compared to gold and other financial instruments.”

This optimistic outlook finds support with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who recently highlighted a projection from March 14. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin could outpace gold by a factor of 10 or even greater, underscoring earlier historical trends.

Cautionary Signals: Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Indicates Potential Setbacks

That said, the outlook for Bitcoin isn’t purely positive. Recent trends suggest that Bitcoin might be gearing up for a decline towards the $65,000 mark, driven by a bearish fractal emerging in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.

This particular ratio is currently reflecting a familiar pattern reminiscent of movements seen in 2021. The breakdown here occurs when a significant support level—the 50-2W exponential moving average—is once again being tested.

Currently, the BTC/XAU is revisiting this fractal and is testing the vital red 50-EMA for support once again. In previous cycles, Bitcoin’s price consolidated around this EMA level before experiencing a decisive downward move. This led to a substantial decline with the price ultimately seeking support at the 200-2W EMA (illustrated by the blue wave). Should historical patterns hold, BTC/XAU might be positioned for a more profound correction, particularly if broader macroeconomic conditions take a turn for the worse.

Curiously, these breakdown trends often coincide with declines in Bitcoin’s value when measured in dollar terms. This is further evidenced by the two-week price chart showing similar downturns.

If this fractal pattern indeed materializes, an initial bearish target for Bitcoin could align with the 50-2W EMA hovering around the $65,000 range. A fierce wave of selling could even suggest price drops below the $20,000 benchmark, aligning with the 200-2W EMA. Conversely, a resurgence from the BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA might refute the bearish fractal scenario.

Impact of a Potential US Recession on Bitcoin’s Prospects

From a broader economic standpoint, the forecast for Bitcoin seems to lean towards a bearish trajectory. Investors are increasingly alarmed that President Trump’s international tariff disputes could escalate, potentially delivering a significant blow to global economic stability and triggering a full-blown US recession. Historically, risk assets, including Bitcoin, have shown a tendency to falter during periods of economic downturn.

Related: Bitcoin ‘decouples’ as stocks suffer a $3.5 trillion loss amid Trump tariff tensions and Fed warnings of rising inflation.

Adding to this cautious sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rejected calls for immediate interest rate reductions. He cautioned that progress towards addressing inflation is not consistent, hinting at a sustained high-rate environment that may suppress Bitcoin’s upside momentum for the foreseeable future.

Despite the prevailing concerns, many bond traders are optimistic, expecting three consecutive rate reductions leading up to the Fed’s September meeting, according to recent data from CME.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.