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Bitcoin Faces Increasing Structural Weakness Amid Bear Market Signs

Bitcoin is exhibiting escalating signs of structural frailty, as both its price dynamics and on-chain metrics shift into conditions that have historically signaled the initiation of bear markets.

Summary of Current Market Conditions

• Price Drop: Bitcoin has declined significantly to approximately $68,400 after a notable breakdown from the earlier $90,000–$95,000 range. This sharp decline underscores the asset’s structural vulnerability.
• SOPR Indicators: Recent data from CryptoQuant indicates that the Adjusted Spend Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has fallen to a range of 0.92–0.94. This range has historically signified stress zones in bear markets, where coins are sold at a loss, reflecting investor skepticism.
• Technical Analysis: All technical indicators are currently leaning bearish, with resistance levels identified at $72,000 and $79,400. In contrast, crucial support is found at $64,000 and the $60,000–$62,000 zone.

Current Trading Situation

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $68,400. This follows a dramatic downturn from the $90,000–$95,000 range earlier this year, which has raised concerns among investors regarding future price sustainability.

Bitcoin Enters Critical Stress Zone

Transition to Bear Market

Recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin may be on the brink of entering a more profound bear phase. The decline in the Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) signals a shift into historically critical levels for the cryptocurrency market.

The current aSOPR metric has dropped to the 0.92–0.94 range. This zone is historically characterized as a stress point where selling at losses becomes prevalent, which can signal weakening confidence among holders.

Historical Context

In previous market cycles, prolonged compression within the 0.92–0.93 range typically occurred during deep corrections and structural resets, contrasting with typical pullbacks. In mid-cycle dips, the aSOPR often quickly returns to 1.0; however, the current situation indicates a much more sustained weakness.

CryptoQuant notes that real market bottoms often only form after situations of extensive loss realization, deeper selling pressure, and eventual exhaustion among sellers. The persistent drop in aSOPR suggests that market participants are feeling the strain of their investments.

Technical Analysis: Price Patterns and Indicators

Current Price Dynamics

At present, Bitcoin’s price appears to be experiencing significant stress levels but hasn’t yet reached a full capitulation phase. This raises the likelihood that additional downward movement could occur before any potential recovery takes place.

The daily chart indicates a decisive loss in trend structure, with the Supertrend indicator now adopting a bearish posture. Currently, this indicator is positioned close to $79,400, which has become a crucial resistance level.

Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped into the low $60,000s before stabilizing, with immediate support forming around $64,000 and additional backing in the $60,000–$62,000 range. Although momentum indicators remain negative, there are early signs that downside pressure may be slowing.

Future Projections

Unless Bitcoin can reclaim the $72,000 mark and subsequently breach the $79,400 resistance, the overarching trend seems to favor ongoing weakness. Coupled with deteriorating on-chain indicators, the current market conditions increasingly resemble a regime shift rather than just a minor correction.

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