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Market Overview: Bitcoin and Equities Post-Fed Rate Cut

Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 2% during the early Asian trading session on Thursday. In contrast, regional equities benefitted from a sustained relief rally, a direct response to the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and its optimistic updates regarding the US economic outlook.

Federal Reserve Actions and Impacts

The Federal Reserve enacted its third consecutive quarter-point reduction, with Chair Jerome Powell suggesting that the inflationary effects caused by tariffs are expected to dissipate as the US economy continues to strengthen. He articulated that this decision is a critical step towards normalizing policy, emphasizing that the primary objective is to foster job growth while avoiding a resurgence of inflationary pressures.

Support for this quarter-point reduction came from nine of the twelve members on the policy committee. New projections indicate that the median official only anticipates one additional rate cut in 2026, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward.

Current Market Statistics

The latest market data illustrates the following trends:

• Bitcoin: Currently priced at $90,121, down 2.3%
• Ether: Valued at $3,224, down 2.4%
• XRP: Priced at $2.01, down 3.9%
• Total Crypto Market Capitalization: Approximately $3.16 trillion, down 2.4%

Future Rate Expectations

As traders evaluate the potential trajectory of the current easing cycle, futures now suggest a 78% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current rates at its upcoming meeting. This represents an increase from the earlier estimate of 70% prior to the latest decision.

Detailed Summary of the Federal Decision (10/12/2025)

1. The Fed reduced rates by 25 basis points, marking its third cut of 2025.
2. The committee will review the "extent and timing" of any further adjustments.
3. US Treasury Bills purchasing is set to commence on December 12th.
4. The Fed plans to buy $40 billion worth of US Treasury bills.

Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, noted that the recent FOMC decision was less hawkish than many market participants had anticipated. This has contributed to a collective sigh of relief among investors. However, market-watchers should be aware that the Fed is now poised to enact only a single rate cut next year—fewer cuts than many had wished for, although this landscape could shift with the notable transitions happening next year.

He further commented, “Today’s announcement alone is unlikely to ignite a Santa rally for Bitcoin. At this juncture, there aren’t any clear catalysts ahead, barring unexpected news from President Donald Trump. Even then, we might see a mere bounce back, as risk assets typically prioritize Fed news over other factors.”

Divergent Trends in Regional Markets

Asian stocks mirrored gains seen on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 ended the day 0.7% higher, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index surged by 1.3% to set a record high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained about 0.5% in early trading, bolstered primarily by interest in technology and financial stocks.

Greater China: A Tale of Two Markets

In Greater China, market responses reflected a mixed risk appetite. The Shanghai benchmark dipped by 0.18%, while the Dow Jones Shanghai index relaxed by 0.10%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased by 0.4%, showcasing investor rotation back into some of Hong Kong’s large-cap stocks. Notably for cryptocurrency traders, the recovery in Hong Kong reflects how equity risk sentiment often correlates with demand for growth-focused, Chinese-linked investments and higher beta tokens.

Tech Sentiment and Future Considerations

After-hours trading in the US showed a more cautious sentiment towards technology stocks. Nasdaq 100 futures fell by about 0.3% during Asian trading hours, particularly after Oracle reported revenue that disappointed market expectations, leading to a significant drop in its shares during late trading. Additionally, Nvidia’s shares followed suit, indicating that investors are now trimming positions in some of the heavily concentrated artificial intelligence stocks, which frequently coexist in the same portfolios as major cryptocurrencies.

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