- August 14, 2023
- Posted by: legaleseblogger
- Category: Related News
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The Intensifying Sense of Impending Doom: Is the World Economy on the Brink of Disaster?
In recent times, I cannot help but find myself entrenched in a mindset that foresees the world economy teetering on the edge of a catastrophic collapse. This alarming sentiment was further reinforced when I learned that CBA, as reported on the news last night, has been reaching out to a staggering 100,000 customers who may be facing financial difficulties. The magnitude of this number is truly unsettling, isn’t it?
Adding to this disconcerting narrative is the inverted USA 10yr3yr curve, which has persisted since August 2022. It is widely recognized that this specific market phenomenon typically heralds a recession. Considering the substantial portion of individuals who have borrowed or made purchases in the past decade, many of whom have never experienced an upward climb in interest rates, the implications become all the more ominous. It leads me to believe that an alarmingly high number of people within our community are currently grappling with profound financial challenges.
As I openly admit that I lack expertise in economics, the sensation of an impending economic downturn of unparalleled proportions grows stronger within me. I am left wondering if we are on the precipice of an economic catastrophe unlike anything we have witnessed before.
In light of these distressing concerns, I would greatly appreciate hearing other perspectives. I kindly implore you to offer constructive insights rather than dismissing these indicators as mere speculative musings. Instead, I am seeking reassurance and a comprehensive understanding of how these indicators might be inaccurate or incomplete.
One solution that could potentially alleviate some apprehension is the utilization of an AI Legalese Decoder. This sophisticated technology has the capability to analyze legal jargon and translate it into plain, understandable language. By employing an AI Legalese Decoder, individuals confronted with complex legal documents and contracts could easily comprehend the intricate details, thereby empowering themselves to make informed decisions. This would be particularly valuable in times of financial uncertainty, as it allows individuals to better comprehend and navigate their precarious economic landscape.
By harnessing the power of AI Legalese Decoder, we could foster greater transparency and remove the obscurity surrounding financial agreements, helping individuals ensure their financial well-being. It serves as a vital tool in mitigating potential risks and equipping people with the knowledge they need to safeguard themselves amidst the looming economic challenges.
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****** just grabbed a
Even if it’s the case, which I’m not sure that it is, there is literally no sense in worrying or stressing about it.
You are literally powerless to influence the global market etc, so just do all you can to set your house in order.
Pay down as much debt as you possibly can, even if you have to do some OT or trim the budget.
Do what you can to keep your job and seek promotions/opportunities elsewhere by upskilling or working hard.
You’ll be right mate, unless aliens invade, in which case you’ll probably vaporised immediately anyway. Hope that helps.
Old bloke that used to live across the road from me once said that weÔÇÖve always been on the verge of disaster, only the disaster changes. I have reached an age now where I canÔÇÖt help but agree. ThereÔÇÖs always been an impending apocalypse. So now I just donÔÇÖt care. IÔÇÖm shopping for a bit of bush land in the case of zombie apocalypse and putting money into investments for the future. Maybe a bit of bi-polar thinking, but IÔÇÖm hedging potential future outcomes. But beside a bit of forward planning, IÔÇÖm just kicking along and living life and just waiting to see it the pimple bursts in my life time. My guess is it doesnÔÇÖt and the disaster just changes for the next generation
IÔÇÖm not trying to sound fluffy here, but honestly turn your social media off for a while and stay away from the news. A media reset really does help.
Stop doom scrolling.
Pretty sure those msgs are just automated based on various criteria and ass covering. Besides, 100k people is a rounding error.
Two years ago everyone was talking about the Evergrande collapse in China triggering an economic catastrophe in Aus. Never happened.
FY22/23 was our most profitable by both percentage and total dollars in nearly 50 years. We currently have more work than we know what to do with. My biggest problem right now is finding time to take a break. With the amount of work in the pipeline I reckon we’ll be busy like this more or less until 2032 (consulting engineer in SE Qld). So for my little bubble, I’m not concerned, no.
CBA has 16 million customers
This is a constructive response. Don’t base your financial decisions on feelings. Do some research and come up with some facts that support your narrative. One of two thing will happen. You’ll either have evidence to support your claim or you will be enlightened with new data.
The media is generally not accurate in calling economic downturns. They will find someone to interview that sells a particular angle, generally fear, despite many other analysts disagreeing or the market constantly proving them wrong. cough* Martin North* The media is always going to sensationlise these things so its important that you take in information from a variety of outlets.
Will a recession happen? I dont know, I would say 50/50. Does a recession feel scary, yes. Even more so if you’re ill prepared. Have we recovered from every recession in the past, yes. Is the media alwys the most doom and gloom before the tides turn, yes.
Take the CBA news piece with a grain of salt. Their PR team is in full swing since they started copping a bit of a flogging on news and socials after their earnings release.
A nice fluff piece like that is likely just part of a charm offensive.
NAB have been running with a similar spiel for a while now with their “More than Money” campaign.
This is CBA running with similar messaging, trying to humanise themselves and diffuse online heat around their $10billion profit.
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If you know anyone in social/community services I would suggest you check in with them. TheyÔÇÖll likely tell you demand is sky high, the funding is limited, and the morale is challenging.
It is happening already in your community, you just arenÔÇÖt seeing it, but you also canÔÇÖt influence it, you can only do what you can to keep yourself financially low risk, and if at all possible donate to a community organisation near you.
Remember, all caps when you spell the man name
Plan for the worst hope for the best. I also feel like shits kinda farked but IÔÇÖm positioned accordingly (to best of my ability)
Unless you lose your job your all good
Yes you’re right.
Ausfinance are high on hoping because everyone has a property and an IP or more.
We are on the brink of a collapse that will end in a depression and famine.
The worst of it is even IF you own your own home any recession or similar will wipe you out with no income due to job loss. You cant save for the recession when everything has jumped up 30-40% (weeklies especially like fuel, power and food). I dont care when i see a dodgy cpi report that adds furniture and concert tickets to reduce the cpi final figure its not realistic to your core weekly requirements
It has already passed. Remember when oil was $10 a barrel. yeah… no one does, everyone still waiting for something to happen. it’s happened. Richer is richer. Poor is poorer.
One manÔÇÖs economic downturn / recession is another manÔÇÖs golden opportunity.
In my circle of friends and family (working class/tradies) everyone is killing it atm, new cars, new caravans, everyone seems to be renovating or outing a pool in.
IÔÇÖm not seeing any doom and gloom but I think this is unsustainable and Australia as a whole is due and in need of a economic slow down. We have been riding the gravy train for the last 30 years so I do think things will come to a head but when is anyoneÔÇÖs guess
If you think that’s bad.. Wait until you hear about our impending *ecological* doom…
LOL , being too online 101
Yes. Have done for at least 7 years.
90 day arrears rate of CBA customers went down in a year of massive interest rate rises.
Nope. A third of households have no rent or mortgage. Every pub, club, restaurant is heaving.
Unemployment is at all time lows
Or zoom out and compare what it was like 20 years ago? Not talking about house prices, but technological advancements
Or compare to 3 world countries in Africa who still need to make daily trips to fetch water
Yes I’m seeing it more on the corporate side
The sky is always falling has been my whole life..hasnt yet
Yeah the inverted yield curve and rising oil prices, increase of US inflation this month due to it, all point to a very slow recovery ahead (or recession)
To some degree, you canÔÇÖt time it but if youÔÇÖre really concerned you should shed some of your stocks, say 1/3 or half in cash. It has been a nice rally this year and could continue but selling now is a great hedge if you held through all the pain.
If youÔÇÖre concerned about your house, donÔÇÖt be as interest rates have likely peaked. So long as youÔÇÖre living in your house and enjoy it, it is a good investment.
Upskill in work if possible, donÔÇÖt get complacent. But no need to be uncomfortable
It’s coming, but I don’t think it will play out the way most people think it will. There is still a lot to be positive about.
We borrowed in 2016 and rates are back to where we started, actually nearly 1% more. So i can’t get on board your comment that “many people who borrowed/purchased during the last 10 years have never seen rates even climb, let alone climb this high.”
I agree OP. Economic collapse in two weeks. Just two weeks. Trust me. It’s going to happen in two weeks
Stop, right now. Change your mindset and change your life. It’s insane, stop this, you deserve better than tormenting yourself. Spend your time improving your life and you won’t have these thoughts, it’s all there for the taking. You deserve better for yourself. Be kind to you.
>USA 10yr3yr curve has been inverted since August 2022 and this (generally) precipitates a recession.
Just some thoughts on your reference to the yield curve.
Firstly I think you mean the 10 year/3 month yield curve as a recession indicator (not so much the 10/3yr).
Just keep in mind the 10year/3 month inverted yield curve has historically worked for the US as a recession indicator yet it doesn’t for all national economies. So it’s not a good indicator for a global recession. Furthermore just because the US goes into recession doesn’t mean we will or the global economy for that matter.
The inverted yield curve fails to provide insight into how long or severe a US recession will be.
Given the interconnected global economy strong demand for 10 year US treasuries can drive down long term yields and while not alone would invert a yield curve it needs to be kept into consideration.
Quantative easing has involved massive purchases of long term securities, driving down long term yields which has had an impact on historic trends and therefore the 10yr/3m inverted yield curve may be a false red flag this time. Even the the economist Campbell Harvey who discovered the indicator thought in January that this time may be different. However recently Campbell has been vocal about the Fed needing to pause otherwise it will be a hard landing. He is worried any more rate increases will put pressure on the financial system.
Central bankers know recession indicators, and there are better ones such as the Salm Rule, so while the indicator may suggest a recession it doesn’t mean they forecast them especially given that contemporary Central Bankers increasingly now use forward looking recession indicators and adjust their policies in the hope to avoid or reduce the degree of a recession.
The US may go into recession, I’m not yet convinced Australia will. The recession won’t be the ‘most significant economic downturn we’ve seen’. I been through the 91 recession, and I believe Central bankers will not put up with such high unemployment again because of it’s long term entrenched effects.