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National Hurricane Center Monitoring Caribbean Disturbances

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is intricately monitoring a significant area of interest in the Caribbean that could soon have implications for Florida. Additionally, the NHC is observing another disturbance located in the Atlantic, as well as the remnants of a previously active tropical storm, Gordon.

Area of Interest in the Caribbean Sea

According to the latest updates from the NHC, a broad area of low pressure is anticipated to emerge early next week in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to travel slowly northwards or north-westwards following its formation. Officials have indicated that gradual development of this system is a distinct possibility.

The NHC suggests that a tropical depression may form surrounding this area, with model predictions pointing to potential development around the middle of the week. Importantly, while most major forecasting models are in agreement regarding the creation of a low-pressure system, there remains some divergence concerning its trajectory afterwards. Although models are progressively aligning, the current lack of formation complicates efforts to predict the exact path and intensity of the system as it develops.

Once the system officially forms, an influx of data will become available, which should allow the models to yield more precise forecasts. Until then, stakeholders are advised to consider these model outputs as indicators of emerging trends that could require ongoing attention.

WESH 2’s First Warning Weather team is vigilantly monitoring this area of interest and is committed to providing timely updates as the situation evolves. As it stands, the formation chances for this system are categorized as "medium," with the NHC estimating a 40% likelihood of development in the coming week. However, in the next 48 hours, the chances of formation are nearly negligible at around 0%.

Monitoring Gordon’s Remaining Influence

As for Gordon, which was once categorized as a tropical storm, the NHC continues to keep a watchful eye on this system, even though it is not expected to pose a direct threat to land. The remnants of Gordon are still prompting observation due to possible redevelopment capabilities.

Currently, the showers and thunderstorms associated with Gordon remain somewhat disorganized. However, there is a notable area of low pressure that has formed from these remnants, and officials suggest that there might be potential for further development in the next few days. As we move forward, the NHC warns that environmental conditions could soon become less favorable for sustained development.

At present, the formation chances for Gordon are classified as low, remaining consistent at 30% for both the next 48 hours and throughout the week. Meanwhile, the current models do not indicate any significant impact from Gordon affecting Florida’s weather.

Conditions in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

Looking further afield, the NHC has flagged an area of interest located approximately 750 miles southeast of Bermuda. After monitoring this system since Thursday, forecasters report that associated shower activity has seen slight changes in organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development, suggesting that some progression may occur as the system meanders across the open waters.

For now, this area of interest holds a 20% chance of forming within the next 48 hours and a 30% chance of development over the next week.

Related Resources

For those seeking preparedness information, refer to the WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024 and tune in to the upcoming special, Surviving the Season | 2024 Hurricane Special from WESH 2, to stay well-informed.

Staying Updated with First Warning Weather

As this situation unfolds, it is essential to stay connected with WESH 2 for the most accurate and current weather forecasts pertaining to Central Florida. Be sure to download the WESH 2 News app to receive real-time weather alerts directly on your device.

The dedicated First Warning Weather team comprises Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, alongside Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda, and Cam Tran, all working together to ensure you have the information you need to stay safe.

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