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Market Overview: Tight Range, Tighter Nerves

Bitcoin lingered within a narrow band of $90,000 to $92,000 early Tuesday morning as market participants adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s crucial decision-making meeting this week. The atmosphere was notably muted regarding risk appetite, with investors focusing more on the evolving landscape rather than making decisive moves. The heightened level of headline risks resulted in market fluctuations being influenced more by ETF reports and signals from across different asset classes than by any strong trending behavior. As market expectations shape up, there is currently an 89% probability priced in for an interest rate cut during the Fed’s Wednesday meeting.

Source: CME Group

Flows: Bitcoin ETF Bleeds, ETH/XRP Inflows Higher

In a contrasting scenario, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a combined outflow of approximately $60.5 million on December 8. Delving deeper into the specifics, while the IBIT ETF saw modest inflows, redemptions in other ETFs overshadowed these slight gains. Conversely, the spot Ethereum ETFs attracted about $35.5 million, and spot XRP ETFs saw an additional influx of roughly $38.0 million. This suggests a certain level of rotational investment within large-cap cryptocurrencies rather than a surge of net demand, indicating shifting preferences among investors.

Source: SosoValue

Corporate Bid: Strategy Buys the Dip

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, made headlines by purchasing 10,624 BTC at a total cost of approximately $962.7 million, achieving an average purchase price of about $90,615. This strategic acquisition not only bolsters their treasury holdings but also signals a sustained demand for Bitcoin on their balance sheet, even amid the prevailing volatility. Such moves can serve as a stabilizing force for spot liquidity, particularly as retail interest and leveraged trading begin to diminish.

Source: SaylorTracker

Macro Watch: Central-Bank Week Sets the Tone

This week marks significant developments as the Reserve Bank of Australia opted to maintain its interest rates while cautioning against persistent inflation pressures. Following an earthquake, the Japanese yen strengthened, setting the stage for a week filled with dense policy announcements. While market expectations lean heavily towards a Fed rate cut, the positioning across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, remains cautious, limiting momentum until clearer guidance is provided.

Context: 2025’s Correlation Hasn’t Vanished

Political tariffs, AI-driven changes in equities, and evolving policy expectations have firmly characterized the volatility throughout the year. Currently, Bitcoin’s price hovers near $90,000, and without a turnaround in inflows, the risk of a disappointing year looms large for BTC. As we look ahead, investors should remain vigilant regarding:

• The Fed’s statement and the language surrounding labor risks in contrast to persistent inflation
• The ETF flows on the following day which could confirm either a continued rotation or further outflows
• Indicators such as funding rates, perpetual basis, and options skew around the $85,000–$92,000 range

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