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Chances for tropical cyclone development increase in Atlantic basin

The FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring two areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic basin for potential development over the coming week. At this time, none of these disturbances pose an immediate threat to the U.S.

A new tropical disturbance has emerged in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, following closely behind Invest 95L, which is on the verge of evolving into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Beryl.

This latest disturbance is currently located just a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While its development remains slow, there is a possibility of it intensifying early next week as it tracks westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at a speed of 15 to 20 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has assigned a 20% chance of development for this system within the next week.

The focus, however, is primarily on the sister storm situated to the west of this new disturbance.

Computer forecast models indicate that tropical development is probable as this disturbance, known as Invest 95L, approaches the Caribbean islands towards the end of the weekend or the start of the following week. Invest 95L is a designation utilized by the NHC to identify areas under investigation for potential tropical development within a week.

Despite the projections, the FOX Forecast Center emphasizes the significant uncertainty surrounding the system’s trajectory post-Caribbean and its potential intensity.

The NHC presently places the development prospects for Invest 95L in the high category, hinting at the likelihood of at least a tropical depression forming.

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HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

“(Wednesday), a number of the computer simulations showed the system developing into a hurricane next week,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross informed. “(Thursday), the various computer models mostly show a weaker system heading west. If the storm ends up in the Caribbean, which is the consensus, it would be pretty unusual for the system to strengthen, although it has happened.”

For now, staying well-informed is crucial, especially for residents of the Caribbean islands, Norcross emphasized.

BRYAN NORCROSS: UNUSUAL JUNE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY

Prior to 2021, the occurrence of a June tropical storm forming in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean was uncommon. However, within the last three years, it has happened three times, and even though Bonnie made attempts in 2022, it only gained momentum upon reaching the western Caribbean.

Invest 94L

Another disturbance labeled as Invest 94L is currently traversing through the Caribbean towards Central America and southern Mexico, carrying the potential for heavy and hazardous rainfall.

HOW DO HURRICANES FORM?

The NHC has assigned a low probability for this system to develop further. If it does intensify, it is likely to occur in the far western Caribbean or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, if the system manages to survive its journey across land, according to Norcross.

“Based on the current projections, the disturbance will impact Central America and move into the southern Gulf over the weekend,” he elaborated. “The prevailing high pressure across the southern U.S. is expected to keep the system positioned well to the south.”

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