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Consumers Confidence in Falling Inflation

Consumers are feeling increasingly confident that inflation will continue falling. This positive sentiment was evident in the latest University of Michigan survey released on Thursday. According to the survey, consumers are now expecting inflation to fall to 2.9% in the next year, down from the 3% expectations seen during February.

Expectations for long-run inflation were also revised downwards, with consumers now forecasting a rate of 2.8%, compared to the 2.9% anticipated a month earlier.

This optimistic outlook is reflected in the one-year inflation projections, which are now within a range similar to that seen in 2018 and 2019, before the onset of the pandemic in 2020 led to a 40-year high in inflation rates.

Despite this positive trend, concerns have arisen regarding the recent readings of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which exceeded economists’ expectations for both January and February. This unexpected rise has raised worries on Wall Street about the possibility of a bumpier decline in inflation than originally anticipated.

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The next reading on inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for February, is set to be released soon. Economists are expecting the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, to have increased by 2.8% year-over-year in February. If the actual data aligns with these expectations, it would mean that annual core inflation remains unchanged from the previous month’s reading.

While concerns linger about the monthly increase in core prices, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains confident in the gradual decline of inflation rates, emphasizing the central bank’s commitment to maintaining stability. As the economy continues to navigate through uncertain times, monitoring these inflation trends will be crucial in shaping future monetary policy decisions.

Stay tuned for more updates on the evolving economic landscape and its impact on consumer sentiment and inflation rates.

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