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Introduction by Michael Barbaro

Hello, I’m Michael Barbaro from "The New York Times." You are tuned into "The Daily."

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Today’s election in Wisconsin is ostensibly centered around the question of which political party — the Democrats or Republicans — will gain control of the state’s supreme court. However, in a broader context, this election has evolved into a referendum on tech billionaire Elon Musk, his influence in Washington, and his willingness to invest substantial amounts of his wealth into American political campaigns.

Today, my colleague, Reid Epstein, joins us to discuss the local election that has garnered intense scrutiny nationwide.

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Date: April 1

Are you all set, Reid?

Reid Epstein’s Readiness

Absolutely! My phone is currently set to Do Not Disturb mode to ensure we stay focused.

Getting Hydrated

Great! Don’t forget to take that last sip of your Spindrift.

Backup Plans

No worries, I’ve got a backup ready! We have plenty of water on hand.

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Political Context Post-Elections

Michael Barbaro: As we’ve seen after each presidential election, the political elite and observers pivot their focus to the initial batch of special elections. These off-season elections take place when a seat is vacated due to retirement or when a representative is appointed to the president’s cabinet.

This scrutinization serves as a barometer measuring public sentiment toward the newly elected president, the current political trajectory of the nation, and the sentiments of both major parties. Despite the fact that President Biden’s administration is still in its infancy, we’ve already experienced several elections of this kind.

Reid Epstein on Iowa’s Special Election

Reid Epstein: The trend began shortly after Trump’s inauguration during a state Senate election in eastern Iowa. This district had previously been a reliable Republican stronghold, with the prior Republican candidate winning by a resounding 22 points during the last election.

Michael Barbaro: A solid Republican seat, correct?

Reid Epstein: That’s right. Yet, astonishingly, the Democrat crossed the finish line victorious by four points in an election that lacked significant attention or funding from the major parties.

Michael Barbaro: Incredible!

Pennsylvania’s Unexpected Results

Reid Epstein: This indicated a budding grassroots enthusiasm for Democratic candidates amidst the new Trump era. Fast forward to last week, the pendulum swung again during another special election in Pennsylvania. This seat had garnered slightly more attention, albeit not much financial backing, in a district that Trump had won by 15 points last fall.

And to the astonishment of many, the Democratic candidate emerged victorious yet again.

Michael Barbaro: Wow, in a district that Trump had previously clinched by 15 points?

Reid Epstein: Exactly, and it was viewed as a signal of rising discontent over Trump’s actions in the White House, which was manifesting even in local elections.

The Significance of Flipping Reliable Republican Seats

Michael Barbaro: What you’re noting, Reid, are not just swing seats but reliable Republican districts. For Democrats to flip such seats, even in the context of a special election, is significant.

Reid Epstein: Absolutely! That brings us to Florida, where we are witnessing a pair of special congressional elections today, designed to fill seats that were previously held by dedicated Trump supporters in districts usually favoring Republicans by margins of 25, 30, or even 35 points.

Michael Barbaro: Remarkable.

Shifts in Momentum Affecting House Republicans

Reid Epstein: In these races, Democrats have significantly outperformed expectations, which has caused considerable anxiety for house Republicans. Just last week, a crucial nomination for Elise Stefanik to become the UN ambassador was retracted, as Republicans could not afford another vacant seat should one of these special elections swing unfavorably.

Michael Barbaro: So, what you’re saying is that the Democrats’ momentum is so strong that the president has actually requested one of his Congress members to remain in Congress instead of joining his cabinet, fearing they might lose one or both of these Republican-held House seats in Florida?

Reid Epstein: That’s correct! Republicans are genuinely worried about these seats, but the Democrats aren’t sharing the same optimistic view; they expect to lose but are relishing the tension it’s causing among Republicans.

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Wisconsin Supreme Court Race

Reid Epstein: Let’s shift our attention to a seminal race: the battle for a critical seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Michael Barbaro: What is it about this particular race that has captured your focus?

Importance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court

Reid Epstein: The Wisconsin Supreme Court wields disproportionate influence over state politics. For instance, it was where Donald Trump attempted to challenge the election results in 2020 and ultimately failed by just a single vote. Furthermore, in the coming months, this court will deliberate crucial matters like abortion rights and congressional district boundaries.

Michael Barbaro: So, it carries significant weight in terms of state and federal policy.

Reid Epstein: Precisely! The justices on this court behave like super legislators with far-reaching authority over policy decisions impacting Wisconsin and potentially the country at large.

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Overview of Candidates in the Race

Michael Barbaro: Let’s delve into the candidates running for this influential judgeship.

Reid Epstein: We must remember that while this is ostensibly a nonpartisan election, the reality is clear about the candidates’ political affiliations.

Liberal Candidate: Susan Crawford

Reid Epstein: The liberal contender is Susan Crawford, a local judge in Dane County, which encompasses Madison.

Archived Recording (Susan Crawford): "I have dedicated myself to advocating for women’s rights and ensuring that health care choices remain in the hands of those intimately involved in the matter."

Reid Epstein: In her previous role as a lawyer, she fought for progressive causes, representing organizations like Planned Parenthood and local teachers’ unions. Her demeanor resembles an archetypical moderate candidate — unexciting yet straightforward.

Conservative Candidate: Brad Schimel

Reid Epstein: The opposing conservative candidate is Brad Schimel, a local judge hailing from Waukesha County.

Archived Recording (Brad Schimel): "I dedicated 35 years to serving the people of Wisconsin…"

Reid Epstein: Schimel previously held the position of state attorney general and has cultivated a reputation for loyalty toward Trump and Republican ideals. His campaign hinges on consolidating Trump’s base.

Michael Barbaro: Sounds like very partisan lines are being drawn in what’s supposed to be a nonpartisan race.

Reid Epstein: It’s undoubtedly the most polarized nonpartisan race we’ve seen in quite some time. Democrats anticipated a repeat of previous patterns, where their voters would be more invigorated to challenge the party in power than the Republicans would be inclined to mobilize their base.

Michael Barbaro: A scenario reminiscent of the earlier races in Iowa and Pennsylvania.

The Impact of Elon Musk on the Election

Reid Epstein: But then, something unprecedented happened: Elon Musk’s involvement turned the landscape on its head. In Wisconsin, we faced a dynamic never before observed where a single donor, who also holds a powerful policy position in the White House, all but financed an entire campaign for a candidate aligned with the Trump agenda, spending upwards of $20 million thus far.

Michael Barbaro: That’s astonishing!

Reid Epstein: To put this in perspective, Musk is not just a significant backer; he’s the largest individual contributor to the Wisconsin Republican Party, representing over 25% of the total funds spent across both candidates in this election. His influence raises critical questions: can Elon Musk counteract the predominantly Democratic discontent across the nation, or will the Democratic enthusiasm driven by opposition to his actions prevail over Musk’s financial might?

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Michael Barbaro: We will return shortly.

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The Rationale Behind Musk’s Investment

Michael Barbaro: So, Reid, why did Elon Musk decide to channel his wealth into this particular race at this specific time?

Reid Epstein: Several theories abound. Firstly, this is the most significant election looming on the calendar until November. Additionally, Musk has a substantial personal financial stake in the race due to Tesla’s ongoing lawsuit against Wisconsin regarding a state law that inhibits the company from directly opening its own car dealerships.

Michael Barbaro: This is likely to be influenced by the outcome of this lawsuit, which could eventually reach the Wisconsin Supreme Court?

Reid Epstein: Precisely! If lost at lower levels, Musk would appeal, ultimately aiming for a sympathetic justice due to his financial backing. However, his motivations may also revolve around establishing himself as a key financier of the MAGA movement, signaling that candidates loyal to Trump and Musk can expect substantial campaign investment.

Michael Barbaro: Given this, how specifically has Musk’s financing materialized in Wisconsin?

Reid Epstein: Musk has deployed an unprecedented amount of funds, notably on a ground campaign targeting Trump supporters. His operation has hired individuals to canvass neighborhoods, reminding voters to endorse Brad Schimel if they wish to see Trump’s agenda fulfilled. This mobilization is supported by a notable pay rate — $25 an hour, which vastly exceeds typical wages for such work in politics.

Michael Barbaro: Astounding!

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The Financial Outreach Strategy

Reid Epstein: Musk’s outreach stretches further than just door-to-door canvassing; he has devised a steady stream of mailings aimed at Trump voters, as well as financing harsh advertisements portraying Susan Crawford as too lenient on crime.

Archived Recording 2: "Crawford’s record? Disturbing and dangerous."

Reid Epstein: These communications suggest that during her tenure as a judge, she permitted violent offenders to receive lesser sentences.

Archived Recording (Susan Crawford): “I stand by my decisions.”

Reid Epstein: In addition to this, Musk has directly contributed to the Republican Party of Wisconsin, which then redistributes these funds to Schimel’s campaign. Beyond that, Musk has implemented a grassroots initiative to incentivize voter engagement through monetary rewards.

Michael Barbaro: To clarify, he’s paying voters directly for signing petitions?

Reid Epstein: Correct! Those who express opposition to "activist judges" receive $100 for signing a simple petition. This method, skirting legal challenges, incentivizes voter engagement without directly compensating them for their votes.

Michael Barbaro: That does sound rather dubious in terms of legality. What has been the response from the local authorities regarding this initiative?

Reid Epstein: The attorney general, a Democrat, indicated this tactic might not be lawful and sought judicial intervention to prohibit Musk’s financial maneuvers. Ironically, the case assigned to review this was presided over by none other than Susan Crawford herself.

Michael Barbaro: Unbelievable!

Reid Epstein: After her swift recusal, over the weekend, the state Supreme Court opted not to intervene, allowing the fundraising event to proceed without any ruling clarifying its legality.

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The Legislative Implications of Musk’s Money

Reid Epstein: Musk’s financial strategies are facilitated by his seemingly inexhaustible wealth, allowing him to pioneer a notable attempt at distinctive voter mobilization unprecedented in scale.

Michael Barbaro: What are the Democrats’ strategies in response to this onslaught of funding from Musk?

Reid Epstein: They have notably reframed their entire campaign narrative against Elon Musk, presenting him as a direct adversary.*

Archived Recording 4: "Elon Musk is attempting to purchase a judgeship."

Reid Epstein: Their campaign has been branded "The People versus Elon Musk," focusing on the outsized influence he wields through his contributions.

Archived Recording (Susan Crawford): "He has poured millions into my opponent’s campaign, essentially taking it over."

Reid Epstein: Susan Crawford has been vocal about the struggles of running against not only a formidable political opponent but also the richest man in the world.

Archived Recording (Susan Crawford): "When I was a child, I never envisioned I’d be competing against someone of his wealth and power."

Establishing Campaign Grounds

Reid Epstein: The Democrats have been honing in on messaging directly attacking Schimel and showcasing his fealty to Musk and Trump. In fact, many ads are actively circulating, painting Schimel as a figure driven by personal ambition rather than genuine commitment to public service.

Archived Recording 5: "Brad Schimel is corrupt and will do whatever it takes to secure a seat on the Supreme Court."

Reid Epstein: The attack ads have invaded the airwaves, branding Schimel as "Kneepad Brad," referencing statements he made about the extent to which he was compelled to plead with donors for financial backing.

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Broader Implications of Musk’s Involvement

Michael Barbaro: The implications of Musk’s involvement in this race feel transformative; it’s quite plausible that the outcome, irrespective of which candidate wins, will provide a template for future political engagements in American elections.

Reid Epstein: Indeed, the unique spectacle of a billionaire orchestrating extensive campaign investment could redefine political funding conventions in subsequent midterm elections. We can expect the opposition party to campaign vigorously against this perception of oligarchic influence wielded by a select few with remarkable wealth.

Michael Barbaro: It opens a dialogue about whether political systems are being undermined by substantial financial pressures exerted by individuals like Musk.

Addressing AI legalese decoder

Given the complexities and potential legal ambiguities surrounding election financing and campaign strategies, tools like the AI legalese decoder can prove invaluable in clarifying the legal frameworks and implications for both candidates and voters participating in these elections.

Using AI technology, this platform can analyze campaign procedures, financial disclosures, and compliance with election laws to ensure transparency and legality. Such resources equip political candidates and local officials with the necessary understanding to navigate this challenging landscape, thereby promoting fair electoral processes.

Reid Epstein: With the evolution of campaign financing, the question remains: how will both parties adapt to this new reality? Can they successfully counteract the billion-dollar forces driving change in American politics?

Michael Barbaro: And as we draw closer to future elections, Musk’s strategies will likely prompt a shift in how candidates engage with their constituents regarding both political issues and the influence of wealth in democracy.

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Conclusion

Thank you for joining us, Reid. We appreciate your insights.

Reid Epstein: Thank you, Michael!

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Additional News

Here’s what else you need to know today: Concerns rise in the markets surrounding President Trump’s tariffs after two of America’s key stock indexes saw significant declines last week. Economists attribute this downtrend to Trump’s erratic tariff implementations and ongoing threats of further tariffs looming in the marketplace.

Additionally, Marine Le Pen, the leading candidate for France’s presidency, faced legal setbacks, resulting in a conviction for embezzlement which precludes her from running in the next election cycle. Despite these hurdles, her standing in the polls remains robust, hinting at a tumultuous political landscape to come.

Today’s episode was brought together by the efforts of Mooj Zadie, Michael Simon Johnson, and Mary Wilson, with editing by Michael Benoist and Liz O. Baylen. Original music was composed by Diane Wong, Dan Powell, and Rowan Niemisto, with engineering by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is credited to Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk from Wonderly.

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Michael Barbaro: That’s it for "The Daily." I’m Michael Barbaro, and I look forward to seeing you tomorrow.

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