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Improved Chances for Snow in the Willamette Valley

Snow Forecast for Wednesday Afternoon

The likelihood of snowfall in the Willamette Valley has notably improved as we approach Wednesday afternoon, despite initial predictions appearing less optimistic as of Tuesday morning. The weather forecast is beginning to look more favorable for snow enthusiasts and those concerned about travel conditions alike.

Accumulation Predictions by the National Weather Service

According to the National Weather Service in Portland, there is now a “moderate confidence” level regarding snowfall accumulation in the area—including Portland—suggesting that several inches of snow could be on its way, which might lead to some travel disruptions.

Specific Probability Estimates

David Bishop, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Portland, stated on Tuesday afternoon that, “Overall, across the I-5 corridor as a whole, over our forecast area, there’s a 45 to 60% chance of one to two inches or more of snowfall occurring somewhere in that area.” This announcement provides a clearer picture of what residents can expect in terms of snow accumulation.

Uncertainties Remain in the Forecast

Despite the more promising signs for snow, there remains a degree of uncertainty regarding the specific location of the low-pressure band responsible for the anticipated snowfall. "This is honestly one of the issues that we’ve been having with this system," said Bishop, emphasizing the unpredictability of the weather patterns at play.

Projected Areas for Snowfall

The forecast indicates a 40 to 65% chance that measurable snow will affect areas along I-5 starting from Wednesday and lasting through noon on Thursday. The central coast, along with the northern and central Willamette Valley, the Columbia River Gorge, and parts of Portland and Vancouver, are identified as the most likely areas to experience snowfall.

Courtesy of the National Weather Service in Portland

Continued Uncertainty in the Forecast Models

Even though the forecasts have narrowed to a degree, the National Weather Service still lacks definitive clarity regarding exactly where the system will drop its snowfall. The confusion among different weather models persists, complicating predictions about the path the low-pressure system will take.

Weather Models’ Predictions

Bishop noted several potential tracks for the snowfall:

• Track 1, which has the snow accumulating further north, has about a 20% chance of occurring.
• Track 3, indicating snow further south, also has a 20% chance of happening.
• Track 2, the most favorable scenario according to forecasts, has an estimated 40% likelihood of occurring.

The remaining 20% suggests the system could impact areas stretching anywhere from the Olympic Peninsula down to California. These varying forecasts highlight the unpredictability of weather and the need for constant updates.

Potential Travel Disruptions

As of Tuesday afternoon, the potential for snow causing disruptions during the evening commute on Wednesday remains plausible somewhere along I-5. Residents are encouraged to pay attention to the latest updates and prepare for possible travel challenges.

Brief Snow Duration Expected

Regardless of how the situation unfolds on Wednesday, forecasters are predicting that snow and ice likely won’t stick around for long. With temperatures expected to reach a high of 45 degrees in Portland on Thursday, any accumulation may quickly dissipate.

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