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Oil Futures Reaction to Iran’s Attack on Israel

(Bloomberg) — Oil futures were barely moved by Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel, with traders attributing the lackluster price action to the notion that the strike was well-flagged beforehand, and expectations that the conflict will remain contained in the aftermath. As Israel weighs its response to the assault, here’s what market watchers are saying about the outlook:

Citigroup’s Analysis

Citigroup Inc.’s base case is for tensions to remain “extremely high” in the Middle East, underpinning prices. That’s prompted the bank to raise its short-term price forecasts, with the three-month target for West Texas Intermediate increased by $8 a barrel.

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Goldman Sachs Evaluation

“We estimate that oil prices already reflect a $5-to-$10-a-barrel risk premium from downside risks to supply,” before the weekend attacks by Iran, Goldman Group Sachs Inc. analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note.

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Societe Generale’s Perspective

“We believe that the immediate risk of a direct confrontation has been contained – at least for now. At the same time, the tail of the event risk distribution has just become heavier with pathways to escalation involving the US increasing,” said Benjamin Hoff, global head of commodities research at Societe Generale SA.

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United Overseas Bank’s Forecast

With the outlook for oil remaining highly uncertain, it’s likely that prices will climb toward $100 a barrel or higher should Iran’s crude production come under threat, United Overseas Bank Ltd. said in a note.

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International Crisis Group’s Analysis

Iran has been signaling that “this was it, it won’t do anything else, but I’m just not sure not responding is an option for Israel,” said Dina Esfandiary, a London-based senior adviser for the Middle East at the International Crisis Group.

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SVB Energy’s Market Assessment

“If the recent retaliatory attacks between Iran and Israel cease at their current level, or refrain from escalating in the region without causing damage to oil production and export facilities, the market should maintain its balance,” said Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International LLC.

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ING Groep’s Perspective

“The market had already priced in some form of attack, while limited damage and no loss of life means the potential for a more measured response from Israel,” ING Groep NV strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note.

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RBC Capital Markets Analysis

The response from Israel’s government to Iran’s attack will determine whether the situation leads to a wider war, or whether the risks of escalation abate, according to RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft.

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International Energy Agency’s Warning

Iran’s air attacks on Israeli military facilities provided a fresh reminder of the importance of oil security, while increasing the risk of volatility in oil markets, according to the International Energy Agency.

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ANZ Banking Group’s Assessment

“The fact that the attack was so well-telegraphed suggests any further escalation is unlikely,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd.

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Again Capital’s Relief

“The oil market can breathe a sigh of relief, at least for now,” said John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital LLC.

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A/S Global Risk Management’s Warning

“The situation is fluid, and if Israel signals it will not retaliate, market tensions will ease,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of research at A/S Global Risk Management.

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(Adds SocGen and UOB’s comments in paragraphs six to eight)

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