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Ethereum’s Potential Bearish Trend: Insights from Analyst Benjamin Cowen

Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is raising alarms regarding Ethereum (ETH), predicting a potential bearish trend as we enter the last quarter of the year. With over 861,500 followers on the social media platform X, Cowen’s insights are closely monitored by crypto enthusiasts and investors alike.

Possible Pattern Repetition from 2016

In his recent observations, Cowen suggests that Ethereum might be mirroring a notable trend observed in 2016 within the monthly timeframe. This repetition could indicate a period of negative growth, or "seeing red," during the fourth quarter of this year. Historically, such patterns can foreshadow considerable shifts in market sentiment, which is crucial information for anyone holding or trading ETH.

However, Cowen does offer a silver lining. He indicates that if Ethereum does follow a similar trajectory, we could expect significant gains in the first half of next year (H1 2025). Specifically, he notes, “With ETH going green in September, the 2016 pattern is still tracking. If it continues to play out, it would mean Q4 is red, followed by green H1 2025. Q4 2019 was also red for ETH, but October was slightly green. Trends can change, but worth following until it deviates.”

Current Market Statistics

As of the latest update, Ethereum is trading at $2,375, reflecting a decline of 3.3% over the past 24 hours. This drop serves as a tangible reminder of the volatility inherent in cryptocurrency markets.

Tether Dominance: A Crucial Factor for Bitcoin

Turning his attention to Bitcoin (BTC), Cowen mentions the need for Tether Dominance (USDT.D) to break below its established trend line on the weekly timeframe. This shift is viewed as essential for sparking a rally in Bitcoin, as it would reflect that market participants are increasingly using their stablecoins to accumulate other crypto assets.

Cowen elaborates, “I posted USDT dominance hitting its long-term trend line on March 14th, 2024, which was the local top for BTC. We all have a way of convincing ourselves that this time is different, but USDT dominance has been putting in higher lows ever since. This trend line needs to break before any real future rally can begin.” This underscores the interconnectedness of cryptocurrencies and the critical role of market dynamics.

Tether Dominance Chart Insights

Logarithmic Regression Band: A View into the Market’s Fair Value

In his final assessment, Cowen shares a logarithmic regression band that tracks the fair value of the cryptocurrency market using data that excludes "bubble" conditions. He highlights that, based on historical data, it’s likely that the crypto market won’t surpass its fair value into overvalued territory until early next year. Cowen notes, “Last cycle, we went durably overvalued by the end of the halving year. But the cycle before that, it wasn’t until the first or second quarter of 2017. The cycle before that, it wasn’t until the first quarter of 2013. So again, we might experience a market that doesn’t durably go overvalued until potentially next year. And if it did that, it wouldn’t really be out of the ordinary. It would actually still be in line with what we saw the cycles do previously.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should conduct their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses incurred are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not endorse the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor do we serve as investment advisors. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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