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Hezbollah’s Current Status: Weakened but Resilient

Author: Hugo Bachega
Middle East Correspondent, reporting from Beirut

Some people in Lebanon took part in demonstrations yesterday following news of the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Source: EPA

Tension and Uncertainty in Lebanon

The atmosphere in Lebanon is palpably tense and filled with anxiety as citizens await Hezbollah’s response to the recent killing of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, by Israeli forces. This event has raised significant concerns regarding the potential responses from Hezbollah and the broader implications for the region. Nasrallah was not just another leader; he was one of the most influential and controversial figures in Lebanese politics, guiding an organization that is often perceived as a "state within the state."

Hezbollah’s Dual Identity

Hezbollah is classified as a terrorist organization by countries like the UK and the US. However, its role in Lebanon extends far beyond that label. Hezbollah serves as both a powerful militia and a political entity, with seats in the Lebanese parliament. Additionally, it provides various social services, garnering significant support from the Lebanese populace. This dual identity complicates any straightforward interpretations of the group’s actions and future developments.

A Fragile Moment for Lebanon

Prime Minister Najib Mikati has declared three days of mourning for Nasrallah and issued a stark warning, indicating that Lebanon is at a precarious juncture. Israeli officials have indicated that their military offensive in the region will continue unabated, triggering fears of an imminent ground invasion of southern Lebanon. The death of Nasrallah has created uncertainty about Hezbollah’s leadership and the potential for escalation in conflict.

Hezbollah’s Remaining Strength

While Hezbollah may be characterized as weakened after this significant loss, it is far from being defeated. The group maintains a formidable presence, consisting of thousands of seasoned fighters and an extensive arsenal of weaponry, including tens of thousands of rockets and missiles capable of hitting targets deep within Israeli territory. This level of military preparedness suggests that Hezbollah remains a powerful force in the region, despite any inflictions it may have recently endured.

Broader Regional Concerns

The implications of this conflict could extend beyond Lebanon, potentially involving other Iranian-backed groups throughout the Middle East. The Houthis in Yemen and various militias in Iraq and Syria could become embroiled, escalating tensions across the entire region. Such developments would pose serious risks not just to Lebanon but to stability across numerous nations entwined in this multifaceted conflict.

Humanitarian Strain in Lebanon

As the fighting continues, Lebanese hospitals and shelters are increasingly strained, trying to manage the fallout from two weeks of relentless Israeli airstrikes that have resulted in the deaths of over 1,000 people and left tens of thousands more displaced. The humanitarian situation raises urgent questions about the future and stability of the nation, as resources become increasingly scarce.

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