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Asian Equities Surge as Fed Rate Cut Bets Fuel Global Rally

Market Highlights

Asian equities rose, joining a global rally as bets the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates fueled a rush into riskier corners of the market.

Risk-On Appetite Dominates

Risk-on appetite has been rising, with optimism that the Fed will cut rates soon, as US retail sales data showed resilience among consumers, fueling hopes for a soft landing. This sentiment drove a rotation into smaller stocks – the Russell 2000 Index is up 12% in the last five sessions, its best showing since April 2020.

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Market Moves

• Stocks: S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, Japan’s Topix rose 0.5%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.2%, and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.3%.
• Currencies: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, the euro was unchanged at $1.0899, the Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 158.54 per dollar, and the offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2877 per dollar.
• Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $65,855.77 and ether rose 1.7% to $3,498.08.
• Bonds: Government bond yields fell across the curve as investors bet on a rate cut.
• Commodities: West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $80.59 a barrel, while spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,476.73 an ounce.

Key Events This Week

• Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
• US housing starts, industrial production, Wednesday
• Fed Beige Book, Wednesday
• Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Wednesday
• ECB rate decision, Thursday
• US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
• Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan, and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
• Fed’s John Williams and Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

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Quote of the Day

"If the Fed can cut rates significantly in the context of a soft landing, there will be better prospects for a re-acceleration in earnings growth for lower quality and cyclical segments of the market," said Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis

Gains for the Russell 2000 are bullish, but investors should be ready for potential profit-taking in the sessions ahead, according to Dan Wantrobski, Janney Montgomery Scott. The longer-term monthly chart on the Russell shows a better picture of its potential, he noted. We believe the Russell 2000 can trade back toward its all-time highs as mean reversion in relative strength highlights further bandwidth for the sector against this year’s leadership, of big tech, he said.

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The AI legalese decoder is a cutting-edge technology that utilizes natural language processing and machine learning algorithms to decode complex financial language, providing actionable insights and market analysis. Our mission is to empower financial institutions and individuals with the tools and expertise needed to navigate the complexities of the financial markets.

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