- January 19, 2024
- Posted by: legaleseblogger
- Category: Related News
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****** just grabbed a
**Agents when market is up:**
Best time to buy – before you are priced out!
**Agents when market is down:**
Best time to buy – buyers market, lots of options and less competition, get a deal before prices go back up!
**Agents when market is flat:**
Best time to buy before the prices pick up again!
Came here to panic.
Am satisfied.
We have looked at lots of place over the last 6 months. Old houses that need a couple hundred k spent on them. ThatÔÇÖs what we are keen on. Something we can put a lot of elbow grease into maybe a major reno down the track and really make into a family home.
Expectation from sellers seems to be cv or above and been told by agents at multiple open homes that all feedback has been below that and owners will just rent out if they canÔÇÖt get what they want. Hardly any stock. So many places withdrawn. Hard to know what to think. Seems like people not meeting the market and happy to just wait it out until things go back up. ƒñÀÔÇìÔÖÇ´©Å
Lots of people (understandably) have a lot of suspicion in the way house prices are reported upon, and IÔÇÖm a developer so take the below observation with a grain of salt.
Many houses are currently selling below replacement value (i.e. the cost of rebuilding a new, equivalent home exceeds the current sales price). In many cases they are selling a long way below replacement value.
Because the market tends to move together, this (along with serviceably constraints on finance side) is suppressing the cost of new builds to a point where itÔÇÖs very, very difficult to get financial feasibilities to stack up. This is why there has been limited activity over the past 18 months. People are completing their existing projects, but very few new projects are being advanced. This means limited new stock coming aboard in the face of record high immigration.
I say all of this to highlight the fact that, at least for new builds, there is no more room for prices to drop. For this reason, along with growing population and the current view that cash rate and wholesale rates have peaked, gives me confidence that weÔÇÖre at or through the bottom of the market. Obviously no one knows for sure, but IÔÇÖm wagering heavily that is the case.
For this reason, i think itÔÇÖs a great time to buy and a terrible time to sell (if you can avoid it). Open to differing views, but if i had spare capital to deploy i would 100% be buying. For anyone in this situation, itÔÇÖs a perspective to consider.
ItÔÇÖs trying to work out what do do my my mortgage prefix in March thatÔÇÖs my issue. DonÔÇÖt want to pay 7.55% for 6/12 months but donÔÇÖt want to lock in for 2-3 years either ƒñÀƒÅ╗ÔÇìÔÖÇ´©Å
Searching for a crystal ball everyone
Now is the best time to buy – Real estate agents (probably)
Price up or price down, the important part is to panic anyway.
I’ll be panicking for the next several years about how I will never be able to buy a house. Feel free to join me 🙂
Homes updated our house yesterday to pretty much where it was a year ago.. and then this afternoon revered it back to the December price 60k lower…
Also I think the other factor is people believing rate cuts are coming soon and will be aggressive. Unsure if inflation will behave with the immigration levels and US CPI today put a bit of cold water in their cuts coming soon. Am I misreading this?
I think the market is ridiculous and has some real downside risks.
With investment property yielding around 3.5% and term deposits over 6%, NZ real estate is only a viable investment with future capital gains. Assuming capital gains in a particular asset class just because it has historically performed well in the past two or three decades is perhaps not wise. Over 90% of properties bought in NZ currently are negatively geared.
The average mortgage rate being paid is currently 5.4%; this will rise at least another 1% as old fixed terms expire and households roll onto new rates of over 7%, with around one-third of households to refix over the next 6 months.
There could be downward pressure on land prices on the supply side. The National Party and ACT Party have made it clear that they will be focusing on opening up land earmarked for development on urban boundaries, and will also be incentivising councils to encourage development through GST-sharing incentives.
Even with tax deductibility of interest being gradually restored by the incumbent government, NZ First will almost certainly be pushing for reduced immigration, given annual population growth currently running at 2.5%.
Yes, start panicking,  just freakout and run through town naked screaming as loud as possible.
Flailing wildly is optional but you do you 
Fuck all houses on the market atm and nothing in the area im looking at is selling. You would think the lack of supply would push up prices but its kinda just flat lined for a bit.
Looking forward to flippers buying and doing a paint job and a quick flip to remove all the cheap reno jobs for first home buyers though… /s
Don’t believe anyone who has a stake in house prices increasing telling you they are increasing. It’s a speculative market, they need to you believe this for it to come true.
The only data you can trust is sales date over a significant period I.E. Is Q1 sales of 2024 better than Q1 sales of 2023? Sadly we don’t have this data yet (And Q4 of last year will be a bit messy with election)
There will be a few factors that will likely increase property prices:
* Interest rates drop – This changes the cost/benefit calculation for both first home buyers and investors, and allows more FHB’s into the market.
* Brightline changes: If this does get reduced it makes it more temping for investors to buy betting on a return
* Tax incentives: If owning property comes with tax advantages this will positively change the cost/benefit calculation
* FOMO: General public opinion will drive people to make emotionally driven decisions that do not make sense. If everyone starts believing that prices are going to raise it will likely cause a self fulfilling prophecy.
* Economy: When the economy is doing well people are more likely to take bigger risks, and take only larger loans. Given the current state of things this is a likely to reduce house prices rather than increase them
* Rent: If rent increase it will incentivize purchasing for both investors and rentees, and the opposite for decreasing rent.
* Renters rights: The stronger renter rights the less incentive rentees have to purchase and vice-versa. If the government changes these, those who could take the risk to buy may be pushed into it out of frustration.
Stronger renter rights reduce investor incentive as they have to take on more risk to invest with less ability to deal with bad tenants.
* Rates: Increasing rates changes the cost/benefit analysis. I.e. Hamilton is trying to increase this by 25% I believe, which will change rent/own value proposition.
​
Feel free to add things I’ve missed in the reply. If none of these change, then it doesn’t make sense for house prices to change any more than proportion median income increase. I.e. if house prices are 10x median income, and median income increases by 5%, then house prices would increase by 0.5% (In a perfect world anyway)
Just look at oneroof they haven’t jumped the same as homes.co.nz. rates will be coming down but houses haven’t gone up that much in two months.
Hello. FHB here with pre approval of 700k. Something I can check with broker when they return from Xmas break next week but hoping for opinions. Interested in a 1 bedroom place but need 2. Has literally double the space in the property with a lined downstairs but not a finished room. Hypothetically could I buy for 600k but get the full 700k loan and use 100k towards building the additional room? Or would that require a full separate loan that may or may not be approved right away due to taking on the mortgage. Cheers.
Our house is worth less than what we paid. Panicking!
Meh. I reckon house prices will be flat ish for a while. A normal market. Maybe last a year or so.
My partner and I were lucky enough to go unconditional on our fist home the week before Christmas and seeing the speculation here makes me very glad that we did. Looks like we may have scored a bargain.
Considering buying a one or 2 bedroom house this year. Keen to hear from you kind folks if it’s a good idea or not?
I can most likely do a 20 percent deposit if I save hard enough for a couple of months.
So looking at places in Wellington has been depressing. I’m pretty much priced out of the market even with a moderate to high salary. In general terms, does owning a rental property somewhere cheaper while renting in Wellington make sense, or is it not worth even looking at?
I plan to buy in 3 months and know anything could happen. Best thing is to stop reading the news and agent comms.