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The Significance of the Leonid Meteor Shower

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Probably the most famous of the annual meteor showers will soon be reaching its maximum: The Leonids. The Leonid meteor shower is known for producing some of the most amazing meteor displays in the annals of astronomy. Most notable are meteor storms such as in 1799, 1833, and 1966 when meteor rates of tens of thousands per hour were observed.

Unfortunately, the negative impact of those turn-of-the-century Leonid showers, is that many were given the impression that they can expect a similar occurrence of celestial fireworks from the Leonids every year. So, it is important to stress right here at the outset that any suggestion of a spectacular meteor Leonid display this year is, to put it mildly, overly optimistic. The 2023 version of the Leonids is more than likely going to be a disappointment, since it probably will be weak and there likely will be long stretches when not a single one will be seen.

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How to see the Leonids this year

The International Meteor Organization (IMO) forecasts hour rates of 10 to 15 per hour with a peak at around 5:00 UT on Nov. 18. The moon is a waxing crescent and will set before 8:30 p.m. on Friday evening and will pose no interference whatsoever. But whatever forecast you trust, be mindful that even at their very best, Leonids are expected to dart across your line of sight on an average of once every 3 to 6 minutes. And that’s only assuming you have a wide-open view of the entire sky and are blessed with dark, non-light polluted conditions.

Leo does not start coming fully into view until the after-midnight hours, so that would be the best time to concentrate on looking for Leonids. As dawn is about to break at around 5 a.m. local time, The Sickle will have climbed more than two-thirds of the way up from the southeast horizon to the point directly overhead (called the zenith).

Watching a meteor shower is a relatively straightforward pursuit. It consists of lying back, looking up at the sky, and waiting. Keep in mind that any local light pollution or obstructions like tall trees or buildings will further reduce your chances of making a meteor sighting.

Starry sky over Hora Mountain in Bayingoleng Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, on the early morning of Nov. 17, 2021.

A meager year in 2023

But it’s also, in the general vicinity of the comet where the heaviest concentrations of meteoroids are as well. In contrast, at the point in the comet’s orbit where we will be passing by on Saturday morning, there’s only a scattering of particles; bits of comet debris that crumbled off the comet’s frozen nucleus perhaps a millennia or two ago.

So the 2023 Leonids are expected to show lean activity this year. According to a highly regarded Russian expert in meteor shower predictions, Mikhail Maslov, forecasts indicate a “moderate” maximum, which he suggests will stay approximately at the same level (about 15 per hour) during the period from 0:00 to 12:00 UT on Nov. 18.

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A look ahead

The good news is that as Comet Tempel-Tuttle draws closer to the sun, the Leonids are expected to slowly improve. According to Mikhail Maslov, a greater preponderance of bright meteors is possible, especially in 2025. But it will not be until 2033 when both Maslov and another well-known forecaster, Frenchman, Jeremie Vaubaillion, predict hourly rates of several hundred or more possible. But the very best years of the next Leonid cycle will be in 2034 and 2035.

Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at New York’s Hayden Planetarium. He writes about astronomy for Natural History magazine, the Farmers’ Almanac, and other publications.

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