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## Treasury Yields and Stock Markets: Reaction to Robust Jobs Data

Treasury Yields and Stock Markets React to Jobs Data, Raising Doubts about Fed’s Interest Rate Plans

(Bloomberg) — The Treasury yields rose noticeably on Thursday, while stocks made a slight recovery after robust jobs data sparked doubts about how soon and how deeply the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates.

The Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.3% as the tech-heavy benchmark pulls back from what could have been its longest losing streak in over a year. Apple Inc. dipped after its second downgrade this week as Piper Sandler flagged concern about iPhone inventory levels. S&P 500 rose 0.4% after the index capped a three-day selloff yesterday.

Ten-year Treasuries extended declines with the yield rising toward 4% after data showed US companies ramped up hiring in December and jobless claims came in below estimates. Swaps traders trimmed their bets on Fed easing after the data.

ÔÇ£There was nothing within the data that would suggest any urgency from policymakers to begin normalizing rates lower during the first quarter,ÔÇØ said Ian Lyngen a strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

Traders will next turn to the monthly US jobs report on Friday as well as European inflation data to gauge whether central banks have room to start lowering interest rates.

Wagers on a March rate cut are dimming with the labor market still on sure footing and the minutes on Wednesday from the FedÔÇÖs December meeting suggesting rates could remain at restrictive levels ÔÇ£for some time.ÔÇØ

Swaps trader are now factoring in around a 65% chance for a quarter point rate cut by the FedÔÇÖs second meeting this year, they had seen a March rate cut as a surer bet last week.

ÔÇ£If tomorrowÔÇÖs numbers show the same kind of strength and the economy keeps rolling along, itÔÇÖs fair to wonder why the Fed would be in a rush to cut rates,ÔÇØ said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

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