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### Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell Testifies Before Senate

#### Market Analyst Predicts Potential Rate Hike in First Quarter

A rate hike in the first quarter is still a possibility, according to Gregory Branch, founder of Veritas Financial Group. He believes that markets have become too confident in the belief that the economy is slowing down and that inflation is re-emerging due to the market’s expectation of a Federal Reserve pivot.

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#### Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Policy Impact on Interest Rates

According to Branch, interest rates could still rise if the Federal Reserve is committed to slowing the labor market. Despite inflation cooling in the second half of 2023, the Fed has indicated that it may not have done enough to achieve its objectives.

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#### Debates on Interest Rate Trajectory

Branch, known for his bearish forecasts, has consistently diverged from the market narrative predicting a Fed pivot and rate cuts. He warned against the assumption that the economy is cooling enough for the Fed to change course, pointing to record low jobless claims and hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials.

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#### Analysis of Labor Market Figures

Recent labor market figures, including the December jobs report showing an addition of 216,000 nonfarm payrolls, support Branch’s argument. However, others, such as UBS’s chief economist, foresee a mid-year slowdown accelerating disinflation, leading to potential Fed rate cuts.

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