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Syringes with needles are seen in front of a displayed Moderna logo in this illustration taken, November 27, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

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According to industry analysts, Moderna is expected to achieve the lower end of its sales target for this year. The company only needs to access a small portion of the private market with its COVID vaccine in order to reach its goal. It is estimated that around 20 million people will need to be vaccinated with Moderna’s updated COVID-19 vaccine for the company to generate $2 billion in sales from the private market by 2023. Four analysts have expressed their belief that this figure is achievable.

This positive outlook for Moderna is supported by the company’s forecast of total U.S. COVID vaccine demand, estimated to be as much as 100 million doses in the fall season. Moderna has projected sales of $6 billion to $8 billion for its COVID-19 vaccine in 2023, with $2 billion to $4 billion expected to come from the commercial market. The remaining sales will be covered by previously signed government contracts.

Despite this optimistic forecast, Moderna’s sales outlook was called into question following Pfizer’s recent announcement. Pfizer lowered its full-year sales outlook for its COVID-19 shot by about $2 billion due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates. As a result, Moderna’s shares have fallen by approximately 22% since Pfizer’s warning.

However, analysts believe that Moderna is less likely to experience a negative impact on its sales outlook in the same way Pfizer did, as the company started off with a more conservative approach. The rollout of Moderna’s new vaccine shots was initially slow but recent data suggests that demand is picking up, with the majority of it expected to come from individuals aged 65 and over.

Moderna’s upcoming third-quarter results will provide further insight into its performance. It is worth noting that Pfizer recently posted its first quarterly loss since 2019 due to various factors, including the U.S. government returning millions of doses of its COVID-19 antiviral treatment and inventory of its COVID vaccine.

As Moderna’s lone marketed product, the COVID vaccine plays a significant role in the company’s financials. However, Moderna is actively working on expanding its product portfolio. The company’s research and development (R&D) costs surged by 62% to $1.1 billion in the second quarter as it seeks to bring other products to the market. Notable developments in Moderna’s pipeline include a flu vaccine and a shot against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The RSV vaccine, with 82.4% effectiveness in older adults with three or more symptoms, is set to be launched in the United States in 2024, competing with vaccines from Pfizer and GSK. Additionally, the data from a late-stage study of Moderna’s flu vaccine with an updated formulation has shown promising results, generating a stronger immune response against all four A and B strains of the influenza virus compared to traditional flu shots.

Overall, Moderna’s broader mRNA-based respiratory pipeline, which includes RSV and flu vaccines, is projected to generate $10 billion to $12 billion in sales. This diversification will help reduce expenses and bring stability to Moderna’s R&D efforts by 2025, according to analysts.

AI legalese decoder can assist in evaluating and interpreting the legal aspects of Moderna’s licensing rights. By leveraging advanced natural language processing algorithms, this AI tool can analyze complex legal documents, identify key terms and provisions, and provide accurate summaries and insights. This can greatly streamline the licensing process, ensuring that Moderna fully understands its rights and obligations regarding the distribution and use of its COVID-19 vaccine. Additionally, the AI legalese decoder can help Moderna navigate any potential legal challenges or disputes related to licensing agreements, ensuring the company’s interests are protected.

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