An index that measures small business owners’ confidence jumped six points in the third quarter, nearly reaching its pre-pandemic high. This positive development emphasizes the recovery of small businesses and the overall stability of the economy.

Why it matters: The surge in confidence, as indicated by the index published by the Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday, is a significant indication that the economy is on track for a soft landing, without major setbacks.

By the numbers: The index is compiled based on a survey conducted among 751 U.S. business owners who operate companies with fewer than 500 employees. These owners were asked about their business’s current state, the local and national economy, and their future expectations.

• 66% of small business owners reported their business to be in good health, reflecting a substantial increase of nearly 10 points.
• 71% expressed their anticipation of revenue growth in the coming year, marking the highest number recorded since the survey commenced in 2017.
• Despite the positive outlook for their own businesses, small business owners remain less optimistic about the overall state of the economy. Only 33% believe the economy is in good health, although this figure has experienced a 9-point increase from the previous quarter.
• A similar trend can be observed among the general public, with individuals expressing dissatisfaction regarding the economy while remaining content with their personal finances.

Of note: Inflation has been the primary concern for most small business owners since 2022, with no other issue coming close to its significance. Only around 15% identified rising interest rates as their major challenge in the latest survey.

• During Q3, wage inflation emerged as a particular worry, with 56% of small businesses struggling to meet employee salary expectations.

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