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Public Confidence in Science: An Examination of Recent Trends

Science is one of the most highly regarded institutions in America, with nearly three-quarters of the public expressing ÔÇ£a great dealÔÇØ or ÔÇ£a fair amountÔÇØ of confidence in scientists. But confidence in science has nonetheless declined over the past few years, since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as it has for most other major social institutions.

In a new article, members of the Strategic Council of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine examine what has happened to public confidence in science, why it has happened, and what can be done to elevate it. The researchers write that while there is broad public agreement about the values that should underpin science, the public questions whether scientists actually live up to these values and whether they can overcome their individual biases.

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The paper, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), relies in part on new data being released in connection with this article by the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania. The data come from the Annenberg Science Knowledge (ASK) survey conducted February 22-28, 2023, with an empaneled, nationally representative sample of 1,638 US adults who were asked about their views on scientists and science. The margin of error for the entire sample is ┬▒3.2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. (See the paper for the findings.) The survey is directed by APPC director Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a member of the Strategic Council and a co-author of the PNAS paper.

Decline in confidence comparable to other institutions

The researchers also examine trends in public confidence in science dating back 20 years from other sources, including the Pew Research Center and the General Social Survey of National Opinion Research at the University of Chicago. These show a recent decline consistent with the decline seen for other institutions.

ÔÇ£WeÔÇÖre of the view that trust has to be earned,ÔÇØ said lead author Arthur Lupia, a member of the NASEMÔÇÖs Strategic Council for Research Excellence, Integrity, and Trust and associate vice president for research at the University of Michigan. ÔÇ£We wanted to understand how trust in science is changing, and why, and is there anything that the scientific enterprise can do to regain trust?ÔÇØ

Highlights

• The public has high levels of confidence in scientistsÔÇÖ competence, trustworthiness, and honestyÔÇö84 percent of survey respondents in February 2023 are very or somewhat confident that scientists provide the public with trustworthy information in the scientistsÔÇÖ area of inquiry.
• Many in the public question whether scientists share their values and whether scientists can overcome their own biases. For instance, when asked whether scientists will or will not publish findings if a studyÔÇÖs results run counter to the interests of the organization running the study, 70 percent said scientists will not publish the findings.
• The public has ÔÇ£consistent beliefs about how scientists should act and beliefs that support their confidence in science despite their concerns about scientistsÔÇÖ possible biases and distortive incentives.ÔÇØ For example, 84 percent of US adults say it is somewhat or very important for scientists to disclose their funders, and 92 percent say it is somewhat or very important that scientists be open to changing their minds based on new evidence.
• However, when asked about scientistsÔÇÖ biases, just over half of US adults (53 percent) say scientists provide the public with unbiased conclusions about their area of inquiry, and just 42 percent say scientists generally are ÔÇ£able to overcome their human and political biases.ÔÇØ

Beyond measurements of trust in science

The Annenberg Public Policy CenterÔÇÖs ASK survey in February 2023 asked US adults more nuanced questions about attitudes toward scientists.

ÔÇ£WeÔÇÖve developed measures beyond trust or confidence in science in order to understand why some in the public are less supportive of science and scientists than others,ÔÇØ said Jamieson, who is also a professor of communication at the University of PennsylvaniaÔÇÖs Annenberg School for Communication. ÔÇ£Perceptions of whether scientists share oneÔÇÖs values, overcome their human and political biases, and correct mistakes are important as well.ÔÇØ

The ASK survey of US adults found, for instance, that 81 percent regard scientists as competent, 70 percent as trustworthy, and 68 percent as honest, but only 42 percent say scientists ÔÇ£share my values.ÔÇØ

A more detailed analysis of the variables and effects seen in AnnenbergÔÇÖs surveys was published in September 2023 in PNAS in the paper ÔÇ£Factors Assessing ScienceÔÇÖs Self-Presentation model and their effect on conservativesÔÇÖ and liberalsÔÇÖ support for funding science.ÔÇØ

Confidence in science and COVID-19 vaccination status

The research published in PNAS was initiated by members of the NASEMÔÇÖs Strategic Council for Research Excellence, Integrity, and Trust, which was established in 2021 to advance the integrity, ethics, resilience, and effectiveness of the research enterprise.

Lupia said the Strategic CouncilÔÇÖs conversations about whether trust in science was declining and if so, why, began during the pandemic.
ÔÇ£There was great science behind the COVID-19 vaccine, so why was the idea of people taking it so controversial?ÔÇØ he asked. ÔÇ£COVID deaths were so visible, and yet the controversy over the vaccine was also so visibleÔÇökind of an icon of the public-health implications of declining trust in science.ÔÇØ

The article cites research from the Annenberg Public Policy Center that found important relationships between science-based forms of trust and the willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine. Data from waves of another APPC survey of US adults in five swing states during the 2020 campaign seasonÔÇöreported in a 2021 article in PNASÔÇöshowed that from July 2020 to February 2021, US adultsÔÇÖ trust in health authorities was a significant predictor of the reported intention to get the COVID-19 vaccine. The article is titled ÔÇ£The role of non-COVID-specific and COVID-specific factors in predicting a shift in willingness to vaccinate: A panel study.ÔÇØ

How to raise confidence in science

Raising public confidence in science, the researchers write, ÔÇ£should not be premised on the assumption that society would be better off with higher levels of uncritical trust in the scientific community. Indeed, uncritical trust in science would violate the scientific norm of organized skepticism and be antithetical to scienceÔÇÖs culture of challenge, critique, and self-correction.ÔÇØ

ÔÇ£Instead,ÔÇØ they propose, ÔÇ£researchers, scientific organizations, and the scientific community writ large need to redouble their commitment to conduct, communicate, critique, andÔÇöwhen error is found or misconduct detectedÔÇöcorrect the published record in ways that both merit and earn public confidence.ÔÇØ

The data cited in the paper, they conclude, ÔÇ£suggest that the scientific communityÔÇÖs commitment to core values such as the culture of critique and correction, peer review, acknowledging limitations in data and methods, precise specification of key terms, and faithful accounts of evidence in every step of scientific practice and in every engagement with the public may help sustain confidence in scientific findings.ÔÇØ

– This press release was originally published on the Annenberg Public Policy Center website