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**Trump Surges in Iowa and New Hampshire**
In a recent poll, Trump’s support among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa has expanded to a significant 51 percent, maintaining his substantial lead in the state. Meanwhile, Republicans in New Hampshire, desperate for an alternative to Trump, are further dividing the field as the state’s popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu, endorsed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. This endorsement becomes the third among early-state governors to back different candidates, illustrating an increasing divide among Republican leaders.

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**Further Divide Among Trump’s Opponents**
The increasing division among Republicans has led to a situation where Trump’s opponents are struggling to coalesce around a single candidate. Despite calls for lower-polling candidates to step aside, many are determined to wait it out until the nominating calendar moves through early states, such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. This refusal to step down has exacerbated the inability of anti-Trump Republicans to consolidate their support behind a singular candidate.

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**Trump’s Dominance in Early States**
The current race mirrors the 2016 election, where Trump defied a fractured field and clinched the GOP nomination despite lacking majority support. As the 2024 election approaches, anti-Trump Republicans are facing a similar predicament, with Trump’s lead in early states significantly higher than his opponents. Despite an increased investment in campaign events, endorsements, and ad spending, Trump’s rivals have struggled to close the substantial gap before the first votes are cast.

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**Candidates’ Strategy and Trump’s Delight**
Trump’s opponents have resorted to attacking each other rather than focusing on the frontrunner, resulting in a lack of impact on Trump’s lead. This has played into Trump’s campaign, as they publicly expressed their delight in their opponents’ self-cannibalizing behavior, exacerbating their disarray. Moreover, there is no guarantee that if more candidates drop out, their supporters will shift to another Trump alternative, further complicating the efforts of anti-Trump Republicans.

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**Candidates’ Wish-Casting**
As the field remains large and divided, many candidates are engaging in wish-casting, seizing every shift in public surveys to bolster their case. Candidates are vying for support by emphasizing their own perceived strengths and attempting to build momentum through persuasive rhetoric, which does not align with the reality of Trump’s substantial lead. Consequently, anti-Trump Republicans are increasingly nervous that the field is still too big to stave off a repeat of 2016.

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**Trump’s Confidence and Rivals’ Struggle**
Trump has capitalized on his rivals’ disarray, drawing thousands of supporters to his New Hampshire arena rally and mocking his lower-polling rivals. His opponents, on the other hand, have failed to effectively challenge Trump directly, resorting to attacks against each other instead. As Trump continues to demonstrate confidence and control over the race, voters who oppose Trump are increasingly anxious about their ability to unite against the frontrunner.

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