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Australian Dollar Declines on Soft PMI Data Release

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of disappointing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data by Judo Bank on Monday.
• The decline was evident in the Australia Composite PMI dropping to 49.9 in July from 50.2 in June, with the Services PMI also decreasing to 50.4 from 51.8.
• In contrast, the US Dollar saw a decrease following lackluster employment data, fueling expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

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Moreover, the Australian Dollar faced downward pressure due to second-quarter inflation data dampening prospects of an imminent rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Predictions now point to an RBA rate cut in November, much earlier than anticipated, leading to a bearish trend in the AUD/USD pair.

As China’s Caixin Services PMI exceeded market expectations, rising to 52.1 in July, the interconnectedness of both economies could introduce volatility in the Australian market, further impacting the Australian Dollar.

Despite these challenges, the US Dollar struggled after disappointing labor market data was released, supporting speculations of a Fed interest rate cut in September. Markets await the release of ISM Services PMI for July, with expectations of a rise to 51.0 from the previous 48.8.

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• The Judo Bank Australia Composite PMI declined to 49.9 in July, below 50 for the first time since January, while the Services PMI saw a marginal growth rate, marking the slowest expansion in six months.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for July showed an increase of 114K, falling short of expectations and the preceding month’s figures.
• US Average Hourly Earnings experienced a decrease in the reported period, indicating challenges in wage growth.
• US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to an eight-month low, hinting at a slowdown in manufacturing activity.
• China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI missed anticipated figures, suggesting a moderation in Chinese economic performance.
• The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a trade surplus for June, surpassing estimates but still lower than the previous reading.
• Federal Reserve Chair’s remark on a potential rate cut in September added to the market speculation and uncertainty.

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