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New Zealand Economy Predicted to Have Modest Growth

Overview

According to a survey of 16 economists by Bloomberg News, New Zealand’s gross domestic product is expected to have increased by 0.1% in the first quarter of the year. While three respondents forecast a contraction and two predict zero growth, the Reserve Bank is more optimistic with a forecast of 0.2% growth for the quarter. The economy, which has been struggling with periods of stagnant economic activity, may have seen a slight expansion due to a tourism recovery and record immigration.

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Subdued Outlook and Consumer Sentiment

Despite the potential growth in the first quarter, the overall outlook for the New Zealand economy remains subdued. Consumer confidence has declined, businesses are pessimistic about sales and profits, and key sectors like services and manufacturing are experiencing contractions. This challenging economic environment has raised concerns about softer growth and disinflationary pressures.

RBNZ’s Monetary Policy

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained a hawkish stance with the Official Cash Rate at 5.5%, citing sticky domestic inflation. However, given the weak economic momentum and continued disinflation, most economists expect the RBNZ to cut rates in the fourth quarter of this year. The upcoming GDP report may further support the case for rate cuts to start sooner than originally projected.

Conclusion

The New Zealand economy’s path to recovery is uncertain, with lingering challenges and the need for proactive monetary policy measures. By using AI legalese decoder, businesses and policymakers can better understand and respond to evolving economic conditions, ultimately leading to informed decision-making and strategic planning for the future.

–With assistance from Shinjini Datta.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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