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US XRP-Spot ETF Flows Highlight Strong Market Demand

As legislative advancements continue to uplift market sentiment, the demand for US XRP-spot ETFs during the holiday period has significantly contributed to the growing bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency space.

In December 2025, the US XRP-spot ETF market showed impressive net inflows of $499.91 million, compared to $666.61 million in inflows recorded in the previous month. Remarkably, this stands in stark contrast to the US BTC-spot ETF market, which saw outflows of $1.09 billion in December after witnessing a substantial outflow of $3.47 billion in November.

Experts within the market are optimistic about a favorable year ahead for XRP, attributing this outlook to the emergence of crypto-friendly legislation and robust institutional interest. Notably, Geoffrey Kendrick, who serves as the Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, has boldly predicted that XRP could reach between $8 and $12.5 by the end of 2028.

Adding to this sentiment, Nate Garaci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, expressed his enthusiasm for the year ahead, stating:

“2025 started w/ active SEC lawsuit against Ripple… Ended w/ spot XRP ETFs trading. Now, we also have spot SOL, HBAR, & LTC ETFs. Additionally, crypto Index ETFs holding ADA, SUI, DOT, LINK, & others have entered the market. This reflects tremendous progress. In my opinion, we are on the verge of crypto truly going mainstream by 2026.”

In September 2025, Geraci cautioned against underestimating demand for XRP-spot ETFs, initially having made a similar underestimation regarding BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETFs. The US BTC-spot ETF market achieved net inflows of $22.4 billion in 2025, culminating in total net inflows of $56.59 billion since its inception.

XRP Outlook Becoming Increasingly Optimistic

The advancements of the Market Structure Bill in Congress, paired with sustained demand for XRP-spot ETFs, solidify a cautiously bullish outlook for the short-term (1-4 weeks) with a price target set at $2.0. At the same time, factors such as enhanced utility, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and the Senate’s approval of the Market Structure Bill substantiate an encouraging longer-term price trajectory:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0

Key Risks That Could Challenge the Bullish Outlook

Despite the encouraging signs, several scenarios present significant risks that could derail this optimistic forecast:

• The Bank of Japan may establish a neutral interest rate between 1.5% and 2.5%, suggesting aggressive rate hikes ahead. A higher neutral rate could encourage a yen carry trade unwind, negatively impacting various risk assets.
• Economic data from the US, coupled with the Federal Reserve, is moderating expectations for a potential rate cut in March.
• The MSCI could remove digital asset treasury companies (DATs) from their listings, which would likely diminish interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Legislative opposition against the Market Structure Bill could stall its progress.
• Outflows from XRP-spot ETFs could detrimentally impact market confidence.

Any of these factors could guide the token’s price toward $1.75, signaling a potential bearish reversal in sentiment.

Technical Indicators Continue to Signal Caution

On Thursday, January 1, XRP registered a gain of 2.06%, reversing a 1.86% loss from the preceding day, closing at $1.8793. This performance outdid the broader crypto market, which saw a 1.33% increase.

However, despite this short rally, XRP remains positioned below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a continued bearish sentiment in the market. Although the technical indicators seem unfavorable, the emergence of bullish fundamentals may counteract this prevailing bearish structure.

Key technical levels to monitor include:

• Support levels: $1.75, followed by $1.50
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.0366
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.3524
• Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66

A pivotal break above the $2.0 psychological threshold would facilitate testing of the 50-day EMA. A sustained breakthrough of the 50-day EMA would suggest a near-term bullish trend reversal, opening avenues toward the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 resistance level.

A successful breakout above the EMAs would not only fortify the bullish medium-term perspective but also align with the longer-term price target of $3.0 projected for an 8-12 week period.

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