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Monitoring the Barry Landslide: Seismic Studies in Alaska

Since the onset of 2020, a dedicated team of scientists has embarked on a crucial mission: the installation of monitoring instruments surrounding the Barry Landslide located in Alaska’s Prince William Sound. The primary goal of this initiative is to meticulously track seismic activity in this sensitive area, allowing researchers to detect potential warning signs well in advance. This proactive monitoring is essential, as an abrupt landslide could lead to the formation of a dangerous tsunami, posing significant threats to both local wildlife and human populations.

Unveiling New Seismic Signals

Through the analysis of seismic recordings collected over these years, researchers have uncovered a previously unrecognized category of seismic signals. These unique events are characterized by sharp, high-frequency pulses that exhibit a noticeable increase in frequency from late summer through mid-winter. Interestingly, this uptick abruptly halts during the late winter or early spring, suggesting a seasonal pattern that merits further investigation.

The Connection Between Signals and Geological Processes

In a recent publication in Seismological Research Letters, Gabrielle Davy and her colleagues from the University of Alaska Fairbanks proposed that these unusual signals can be attributed to the cyclical freezing and thawing of water trapped inside tiny fractures within the rock situated beneath the nearby Cascade Glacier. Their research stands out as one of the first systematic analyses conducted on these short and impulsive seismic events in the vicinity of the Barry Landslide.

While the scientists stress that these signals do not indicate any direct movement of the landslide itself, they could still provide critical insights into the fluctuations in underground water conditions beneath the slope. These shifting water levels could potentially influence the stability of the slope over time, making this research all the more significant.

Understanding the Risks of the Barry Landslide

The emphasis on searching for seismic warning signs around the Barry Arm is heightened by the knowledge that the landslide rests in an inherently unstable environment. The steep slopes, underlain by weak and heavily fractured bedrock, heighten the chances of a failure occurring. The situation has been exacerbated by the retreat and rapid melting of the Barry Glacier over the past century, which has removed essential support for the hillside.

Davy articulated the gravity of the concern surrounding the Barry Landslide: “The size of this landslide is particularly alarming,” she explained. “It represents a massive, slowly moving mass of approximately 500 million cubic meters that has been gradually shifting for decades.”

She further warned, “Should a rapid collapse transpire, the resulting debris would descend directly into the fjord, posing a risk of generating a significant tsunami with potentially catastrophic wave heights.” With the Barry Arm frequented by kayakers and cruise ships, and neighboring communities like Whittier lying in close proximity, understanding the potential hazards becomes imperative from both a scientific and public safety standpoint.

Analyzing Seismic Data: A Year in Review

Given the substantial risks associated with the area, extensive instrumentation has been deployed around the landslide since 2020. The recent study by Davy and her colleagues is one of the pioneering efforts to thoroughly analyze the copious amounts of seismic data gathered from these instruments.

For their research, the team undertook the meticulous task of manually reviewing an entire year of continuous seismic waveform recordings. They sought out specific signals that could signify when and where a landslide may occur.

This hands-on methodology enabled the researchers to discern a diverse range of signals present within the data. These encompassed vibrations generated by minor earthquakes, glacier movements, and slope deformations, as well as other seismic background noise.

Davy explained, “It was crucial for us to establish a clear baseline understanding of the signal types that typically occur in the area. This foundational knowledge would allow any unusual or previously unrecognized signals to become more easily identifiable. By immersing ourselves in the raw data, we trained our eyes to determine what constituted ‘normal’ before developing classification tools and detection algorithms.”

Seasonal Patterns and the Freeze-Thaw Phenomenon

As the researchers honed their ability to identify these unusual short-impulsive events within the seismic records, they proceeded to compare them with weather and rainfall data. Additionally, ground-based radar was employed to monitor subtle shifts in slope movements. This comprehensive approach facilitated a nuanced understanding of when and where these signals manifested.

The precise timing, geographical context, and characteristics of the signals indicated that small, brittle events occur seasonally due to the freezing and thawing of water within cracks in the underlying rock.

Davy noted, “Seismic signals of a similar nature have been recorded in various other settings, even though they are not well-documented.” She referenced a recent study conducted in Norway, which identified comparable signals near an unstable rock slope and suggested that these occurrences might also be associated with freeze-thaw processes affecting cracks in the bedrock.

Moving Towards Improved Landslide Early Warning Systems

In light of the research findings, co-author Ezgi Karasözen indicated that the Alaska Earthquake Center is currently evaluating a regional landslide detection system at the Barry Landslide site. According to Karasözen, this system aims to provide timely alerts regarding any slope failures in this area.

Karasözen emphasized the importance of the ongoing research, stating, “As investigations into landslide seismology expand, there’s a growing acknowledgment that precursor seismic activity—when it does occur—can serve as a pivotal source of early warning.” This realization underscores the need for broader explorations not only at Barry Arm but also at other similarly hazardous locations throughout southern Alaska.

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