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Market Confidence in Fed Rate Cuts Boosts Global Stocks

(Bloomberg) — A global gauge of stocks approached a record high as traders grew increasingly assured the Federal Reserve is on the cusp of delivering its first interest-rate cuts in more than four years.

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Market Outlook and Performance

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MSCI’s All Country World index ticked up 0.1%, trading near its all-time record close on July 16. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index advanced 0.5% as Deutsche Bank AG rallied after predicting a boost to third-quarter results. Futures on the S&P 500 edged 0.2% higher.

Growing expectations for US rate cuts have erased the market slump at the start of August that was sparked by recession fears in the US and a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade. Now, investors are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday for further evidence a September cut is coming.

Traders are back to pricing 100 basis points of easing this year after payroll revisions and Fed minutes reinforced the case for lower rates. After four days of declines, yields on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 3.82% on Thursday. The dollar traded flat.

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European Economic Indicators

In Europe, data showed a mixed picture for the region’s economy, despite a surprise boost from the Paris Olympics.

French services expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years, while in Germany a composite PMI added to evidence that the country’s recovery has fizzled out. Britain’s private sector companies reported their strongest growth in four months alongside cooling price pressures.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, meanwhile, faces intense market scrutiny on Friday when he speaks to lawmakers, after the central bank’s hawkish signals contributed to the global market turmoil earlier this month.

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Company News and Key Events

In company news, shares of Deutsche Bank jumped more than 3%. The lender said it expects a €430 million ($479 million) boost to pretax profit in the third quarter after reaching agreements with more than 80 plaintiffs in a long-running dispute.

Key events this week:

• ECB publishes account of July rate decision, Thursday
• US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, S&P Global PMI, Thursday
• Japan CPI, Friday
• BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda to attend special session at Japan’s parliament to discuss July hike, Friday
• US new home sales, Friday
• Jerome Powell speaks in Jackson Hole, Friday

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Market Movement Highlights

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 7:32 a.m. New York time
• Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%
• Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
• The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%
• The MSCI World Index was little changed

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
• The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1134
• The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3109
• The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 146.04 per dollar

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Financial Markets Update

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin was little changed at $61,221.39
• Ether rose 0.2% to $2,636.9

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.83%
• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.23%
• Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.93%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $72.32 a barrel
• Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,502.94 an ounce

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This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Mia Glass, Abhishek Vishnoi, David Ingles, Yvonne Man and Chiranjivi Chakraborty.

(Earlier version of the story corrected the day of Ueda’s meeting with lawmakers.)

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