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• Author: Nick Eardley
• Role: Political correspondent
• Published: 6 hours ago

The new Labour government has been in power for just over three weeks. In that time, it says ministers have found government departments in a much worse state than they thought. On Monday, the Chancellor will argue the public finances are in a bad place – and that will mean tough decisions. To use the Westminster jargon, she’s rolling the pitch for announcements that might not be popular. But how much of what the government is facing is actually a surprise? And how much are these ministers trying to shape the political narrative?

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The first thing to highlight is that we already had a good idea of the state of the country’s books. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publishes them twice a year – we last got a full breakdown last November. We also knew during the election campaign that there were tough decisions to come. Treasury insiders are claiming there have been surprises since they took over. One is that public sector pay deals are likely to cost a lot more than expected.

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"Black hole"

The Treasury intends to publish a full report and breakdown on Monday, explaining where it thinks it has found a “black hole”. At that point we will be able to scrutinise the calculations and see what is really new. But it was known before the election that whoever was in power afterwards would face big challenges. Rachel Reeves started talking about a tricky inheritance well before polling day. "We know things are in a pretty bad state… You don’t need to win an election to find that out.”

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Framing the narrative

So let’s return to the politics. Because a lot of this is about politics. The new government is trying to frame the debate over the next few years. It wants to argue it has been left such a dire inheritance that it has to do some pretty unpopular things. It wants you to blame the Conservatives – not Labour.

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