- May 23, 2024
- Posted by: legaleseblogger
- Category: Related News
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****** just grabbed a
House price rise.
Wage price no rise enough to keep up.
Potential house buyer sad.
[removed]
Bullet point summary, based on the transcript from /u/ibelieveinsocialism
– **Rising House Prices vs. Income:** In wealthy countries like Canada, the USA, and Australia, house prices have significantly outstripped the growth in average incomes, making housing less affordable.
– **Dual Nature of Housing:** Houses are seen both as consumption goods (where they degrade over time through use) and investment goods (attracting buyers looking for capital gains).
– **Three Economic Theories Explaining Housing Crisis:**
1. **Construction Failure:** Inadequate construction activity has failed to keep up with the demand for new housing, contributing to rising prices.
2. **Excessive Speculation:** Speculative investment in housing has inflated prices beyond what typical consumers can afford.
3. **Financialisation of Housing:** The increasing treatment of housing as a financial asset rather than a place to live has distorted the market.
– **Impact of Low Mortgage Rates:** Despite historically low mortgage rates making borrowing cheaper, the overall affordability of housing hasn’t improved significantly because the prices are driven up by other factors.
– **NIMBYism and Regulatory Barriers:** Local opposition to new developments (‘Not In My Backyard’ sentiment) and stringent zoning laws have slowed down the construction of new housing.
– **Mismatch Between Supply and Demand:** Even where the population has grown due to factors like immigration, the construction of new housing hasn’t kept pace, exacerbating the shortage.
– **Investment vs. Utilisation:** The attractiveness of housing as an investment leads to increased construction and higher prices, but not necessarily to better availability or affordability for the average buyer.
+1 for Money & Macro. Out of the cesspool of wanna be YouTube economists, he actually has the credentials and cites his arguments.
Of course though, this isn’t exactly a great topic for ausfinace. What are we supposed to do with this OP.
a further illustration, in particular when buying a house in Australia vs i.e. Germany:
[https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami/status/1788551997144388060/photo/1](https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami/status/1788551997144388060/photo/1)
The risk in Aus with those laughable fix-rate terms is incredibly high compared to more balanced countries.
(I would have posted the actual graph, but not sure how to 😀 )
It’s because the demand for housing is far outstripping supply. The release of land and construction is severely restricted by councils. At the same time the entire third world wants to land bank here. Could it be in such a climate, that the price of housing is not bound by anything except the availability of money?
Interest rates all over the world were essentially slashed to zero (and then there was further stimulus to boot). In Australia, that all flowed directly into housing.
Supply and demand ?
No mention of immigration at all. Hmmm.
Especially for Canada and Australia, pretty sure that’s a pretty massive factor.
I believe foreign investment to be the biggest factor. People who can tell their agent to bid until they win no matter what. If that happens 3 or 4 times in a short period that becomes the new price in that suburb.
The supply demand causing fear is also making people want to massively overpay. I was looking at a townhouses in a complex, someone came in and offered $300k over the guide to scare everyone else off. Much to his dismay someone else came in over the top. Day after that place sold another place in the complex was for sale with that sale price of the last place as the guide. It’s insane inflation. His plan to overpay to avoid an auction misrepresents the value of the property.
Transcript
House prices have exploded over the last few years, especially in rich countries like Canada, the United States and Australia, where house prices far outpaced other prices. And, crucially, the average income of most people. As a consequence, fewer and fewer people are now able to afford a roof over their head in these countries. So how did houses get so expensive? And how does that rhyme with the fact that some pretty well respected economists claim that housing has actually become more affordable00:33since the 1990s, because mortgage rates have dropped to historically low levels? sadly, if you just watch the regular news, you can find almost any explanation you like, ranging from increased immigration to increased urbanization to increasingly expensive building materials to outdated zoning laws to increase speculation. In fact, I’d argue that there are now so many explanations out there that it is frankly, all getting a bit confusing. So to fix that, to provide a bit of clarity, if you will,01:07I once again turned to the science of economics and boiled it down to three theories that actually have some solid evidence to back them up. A construction failure, excessive speculation, and the general financialization of housing. Together, I found that these three stories can explain the housing crisis in any country. For example, they can explain while most rich countries house prices exploded, those in Japan, Korea and until recently Germany decreased. They can also explain how a single city in New Zealand has made housing01:40more affordable, in spite of rising house prices in the rest of the country. And last but not least, these theories can explain why in China, a country where millions of apartments are sitting empty, housing is still unaffordable for most. But to make sense of these three theories, we first need to recognize that the housing market is not like any other, because a house is at the same time a so-called consumption goods and a so-called investment goods. So what do I mean when I say. A house is a consumption good?02:15First, let’s start by stating that obviously people don’t tend to eat their house, but they do live in it. And as they do, our house gradually becomes worth less as it gets dirty, damaged, and generally degrades over time. Therefore, you could say that over the years, people slowly consume their home as they live in it. Now, if a house was just a consumption good, then the economic forces that determine its price should be a really simple function of how many new people there are and how many houses are built.02:49And this brings us to our first theory, which is that construction has just not been able to keep up with the number of people that need new houses to live in, causing prices to obviously go up. But is there any evidence to back up that first theory? Well, to answer that question, we first need to talk about what evidence we should actually be looking at in this theory. This is quite simple.
Money doesn’t grow on trees.
What happened to the nobility in France when they had too much property?
[removed]
People good at explaining, but nobody good at fixing.
Relevant Garry https://www.youtube.com/@garyseconomics/videos
Why are so few mentioning our all time record immigration levels? Wtf is going on in this sub?
I read the transcript and basically he’s a vacancy truther. Census statistics show that to be nonsense.
Most people can afford a studio apartment
Lots of people can still afford houses.
He forgot immigrants. Just look at any suburbs with them.
People here complaining about immigration, instead of complaining about their elected government not building enough to support growing demand. Barking up the wrong tree. Always easy to blame immigration.
Humans will generally borrow to the max in a consumerist economy. More wages (more demand = $) causes even higher house prices. It’s a supply issue not a demand issue.
This is that silly Dutch guy that blames it on everything but demand/population growth
I know so many people buying houses. You guys are the just bottom tier of the economy who needs validation on reddit. Good luck with your future when people your age (or younger) are snapping up houses with no issues and third world immigrants are buying property without any sweat.
EDIT: Downvotes with no argument or rebuttal? You guys are such low tier.
No wonder third world immigrants are outbidding you on properties and you have nothing to show for it. Disgraceful