Credit card default rates hit their highest level in nearly 13 years at the beginning of 2024, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The central bank’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit showed the share of “seriously delinquent” bet, or at least 90 days behind, rose to 6.86% of outstanding balances in the first quarter of 2024, the highest since Q2 of 2011. At the same time, auto delinquencies moved to 2.78%, the highest since Q2 of 2010.

Those increases came even though total credit card balances fell to $1.12 trillion, a decline of $14 billion. However, total consumer debt rose to $17.69 trillion, an increase of $184 billion, or 1.1%.

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—Jeff Cox

Although U.S. federal debt boosts the economy in the short term, Wolfe Research foresees it posing key risks to the market over time. “We expect transfer payments, the CHIPS Act, the IRA, and infrastructure spending to continue to provide fiscal tailwinds for the economy and stock prices in the quarters ahead,” wrote chief investment strategist Chris Senyek. “However, the huge problem is that U.S. federal debt is on an unsustainable long-term trajectory! More specifically, the CBO projects that publicly held federal debt will reach an all-time high in 2029!” Senyek noted two specific key risks.

For one, “bond vigilantes” could push back, ultimately sending yields higher. Additionally, interest payments could also squeeze out spending faster than expected, the analyst added.

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— Lisa Kailai Han