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Positive outlook for North America’s largest companies in Q2

(Bloomberg) — North America’s largest companies are defying expectations with their impressive quarterly earnings, outperforming projections by a significant margin. This trend marks their best performance relative to expectations in at least two years, a testament to their efforts in cost management amid concerns of a potential recession.

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The 459 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported this quarter have surpassed profit forecasts by an average of 8.4%, showcasing a strong performance. An impressive 79% of these companies have exceeded profit expectations, a notable improvement from the previous quarter’s 76%.

The fear of an impending recession appears to be a driving force behind this exceptional performance. Companies are taking proactive measures to bolster their financial positions, including trimming expenses and building cash reserves to mitigate the impact of a possible economic downturn. This cautious approach, coupled with a decline in earnings revisions leading up to the quarter, has created room for additional growth potential.

Companies have adopted a strategy of doing more with less, as explained by Lombard Odier Asset Management Head of Macro Research Florian Ielpo. This approach has not only boosted profitability but also contributed to a smaller average size of double misses in the S&P 500, where companies fall short in both revenue and earnings expectations.

According to Evercore ISI Chief Equity and Quantitative Strategist Julian Emanuel, prudent management practices are likely to prevail as companies prioritize financial stability. With a focus on caution and conservative decision-making, corporate America has consistently weathered uncertainties.

On the revenue front, companies are meeting expectations, thanks to a stable macroeconomic environment that aids in forecasting sales accurately. Mentions of a recession in earnings calls and reports from S&P 500 entities have plummeted to their lowest levels since 2022, reflecting a more optimistic outlook.

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As a result of the robust earnings performance, analysts are increasingly optimistic and revising their earnings forecasts upward at the fastest pace in two years, signaling a positive trend for the market.

Read more: US Companies Talk Cost Cutting Like Never Before: Earnings Watch

–With assistance from Redd Brown.

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©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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